Forecast: Salt Lake Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

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Weather and Snow

The moon glows the same

It is the drifting cloud forms

make it seem to change.

--- Matsuo Bashō (1644-1694)

Under the full moon, we have mostly cloudy skies.

Mountain temperatures are in the single digits and low teens. Winds, again mercifully, are light from the west. Only the highest ridgelines are experiencing gusts of 25mph. The mountains squeezed another trace to 2" overnight and storm totals are 35-45" in the upper Cottonwoods and 30"+ along the Park City ridgeline.

For today, we'll see intermittent snow showers with narrow windows of filtered sun. Hopefully very narrow. Temperatures will be in the upper teens to low 20s. Winds will be light from the west-southwest.

We'll see another burst of snowfall Wednesday (perhaps 4-8") with Thursday providing something of a day of rest. We'll need it, for Friday ushers in a well advertised wet, warm, and windy atmospheric river event from the west/southwest. The view from here is 10-18" of heavy dense snow with an initial rain/snow line as high as 8000', possibly higher.

Recent Avalanches

By my count, there were five significant avalanches triggered yesterday that make me stand up and pay attention. They follow a distinct pattern with three others triggered on Sunday: East to Southeast facing between 8300'-10,600'. Many of these were triggered low on the slope.

Here's the gist: Thursday's brief clearing produced a crust on some solar aspects and this crust is acting as an EXCELLENT bed surface for avalanches. At this point, we believe that this collapsible weak layer is some low density snow from Friday and subsequently overloaded by the weekend blockbuster storm. I say collapsible, because many of these avalanches are being triggered remotely; that is, at a distance. Some of these avalanches are then triggering avalanches on other adjacent slopes.

If you're not spooked, you should be (I am): see yesterday's avalanche on Tuscarora below. We believe things will slowly stabilize this week...but Friday's storm may put the hammer down, so we'll see.

The List:

Weathering Heights: 8300' SE facing 1' deep 50' wide
Ricardo's Roll: 8800' East facing 2' deep 200' wide (remotely triggered)
Lower Meadow Chutes: 8900' SE facing 2' deep 300' wide (remotely triggered)
Reynolds Peak (Grand Central) 9000' SE facing 2' deep and 150' wide (remotely triggered)
Reynolds Peak (Grand Central) 8800' SE facing 2' deep and 120' wide (triggered by previous avalanche)
Tuscarora 10,600' SE facing 3' deep 300' wide
Pinecone ridge (PCMR) 9700' East facing 2-3' deep and 300' wide (triggered by explosive)
Pinecone ridge (PCMR) 9700' East facing 2-3' deep and 300' wide (triggered by previous avalanche)

Check recent observations from the backcountry in the menu bar above.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

You will be able to trigger new snow avalanches big enough to kill you in steep terrain today.

Both soft slab avalanches and loose snow sluffs are likely on a variety of aspects and elevations, but the most dangerous and unpredictable avalanches have been on mid and upper elevation slopes with a buried crust 1-3' down. These crusts may be found on east to south to west facing aspects, but all the avalanches have been (so far) on east and southeast facing aspects. THIS IS BULLS-EYE INFORMATION.

Snow tests have been inconsistent in showing a guilty snowpack, but this leads to more uncertainty and more caution. Take a moment to read Greg Gagne's report from yesterday. His snow profile is below.

These avalanches are being triggered at a distance with some avalanches triggering other avalanches....this leads to more uncertainty and more caution.

I would approach any steep terrain with caution today.

Note that avalanches will release well off the ridgelines and not in usual starting zones.

In your decision making today, ask yourself and your partners, "Is this slope safe?" and Why...

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Soft slabs of wind blown snow may be most prevalent along the highest, highest ridgelines. Note as well that this season, the CORNICES are ENORMOUS. Give these yawning waves a very wide berth along the ridgelines.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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