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Forecast for the Salt Lake Area Mountains

Mark Staples
Issued by Mark Staples on
Thursday morning, March 12, 2020
Today the avalanche danger will start LOW on all aspects and elevations but rise to MODERATE on south, east and west facing slopes as the day heats up. Wet loose avalanches will become possible on these slopes. Other slopes will keep a LOW danger but there could be old slabs of wind drifted snow in isolated locations that could be triggered.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Yesterday, cloudy skies kept things from heating up too much. The snow remained mostly frozen at mid and upper elevations. In the afternoon there was a slight amount of precip that was snow up high and a drizzle of rain in the valleys.
This morning temperatures range from the mid 30s to mid 20s F under mostly clear skies. Westerly winds are blowing 10-15 mph and gusting 20-30 mph. At the highest elevations, winds are blowing 40-50 mph.
Today will be sunny and windy. High temperatures should climb into the 40s F and westerly winds will continue.
With generally clear skies and mostly below freezing temperatures the snowpack is frozen at mid and upper elevations. You can find some dry powder on wind and sun sheltered slopes at mid and upper elevations. However the snow from last weekend has been drifted by recent winds creating slightly punchy conditions on many slopes as in the photo below.
Recent Avalanches
The only reported avalanche activity yesterday was from ski guides who noted some very small wet loose avalanches at the lowest elevations.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Today's strong sunshine and warm temperatures will cause the snow to get wet. This wet snow will produce small, loose wet avalanches. A few could be bigger if they entrain more snow as they roll downhill. The good news is that the snow is mostly frozen this morning and has been through several melt-freeze cycle.
Slopes with exposed cliffs and rock bands or gullies where the sunshine is concentrated will be the most likely places to see loose wet avalanches. The most dangerous locations will be in confined gullies this afternoon when these slides can happen on their own and hit you from above.
These types of avalanches are mostly predictable and start occurring as the snow gets more and more wet from sunshine and warm air temperatures. Look for rollerballs and pinwheels rolling downhill and getting bigger as a sign that wet loose avalanches could start occurring.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
New snow that fell last weekend was transported by the wind earlier this week. There could be a few slabs of wind drifted snow you could trigger today. Yesterday, Nikki and I skied from White Pine to Hogum Fork. All the wind slabs felt well bonded, but they were resting on slightly softer snow. None of these wind slabs would crack, avalanche, or show signs of instability except when we performed extended column tests which consistently fractured across the entire column after 11-12 taps. For that reason, we simply avoided skiing on any obvious wind drifts which were easy to spot.
Today the odds of triggering a wind slab are low, but I would definitely avoid riding on them if I were above rocks, cliffs, trees, or any terrain where the consequences of a small avalanche would be amplified.
General Announcements
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.