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Forecast for the Salt Lake Area Mountains

Trent Meisenheimer
Issued by Trent Meisenheimer on
Monday morning, October 25, 2021
Starting this evening, we will have a rising avalanche danger overnight into Tuesday morning with strong northerly winds and heavy snowfall. Natural and human-triggered avalanches will be possible. Be sure to have a partner and carry the necessary rescue gear of transceiver, probe, and shovel.
We will update this as conditions warrant. Please submit your observations - thanks!
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Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Alta Ski Area will be closed to uphill traffic beginning tonight at 5:00 pm and will remain closed tomorrow. Access to Catherine's Pass via the summer road will remain open.
The 14th Annual Utah Snow and Avalanche Workshop is virtual again this year and will be held Nov 5th (professional session) and Nov 9th, 10th, 11th evenings from 6-9 pm. More info and speaker lineup on our Events page HERE.
Check all the upcoming education HERE.
Weather and Snow
Rain and snow should begin to fall around 8:00 pm tonight as a large-scale trough positioned off the west coast continues to move inland. This large trough has an atmospheric river of moisture rounding the base and should make for an exciting 24-36 hours. Yee-haw
Overnight the southerly winds woke me up around 2:30 am with garbage cans taking a ride down the street. In the mountains, the winds constantly blew in the 20-30's mph with gusts into the 50's 60's, and 70's mph at many upper elevation stations. Ogden peak recorded a max gust at 87 mph.
Currently, the mountain temperatures hover in the 40's °F at 9,000' and will continue to be balmy for much of the afternoon. The bad news: we could see it rain in the mountains before it switches over to snow this early evening. The good news: Temperatures will drastically drop once the front passes over the Beehive State. The 10,000' temperature drops from 34 °F to 14 °F in just 24hrs.
As the front passes sometime this late evening, the winds will shift northerly, and we will see periods of heavy snowfall with rates exceeding 1" per hour overnight. By Wednesday morning, most of northern Utah will likely see 12-24" of new snow containing 1-2" of water. Areas favored by a northwest flow could see additional snow and water amounts.
Recent Avalanches
Yesterday, warm temperatures created roller-balls in steep terrain, with some wet-loose avalanche activity reported to the UAC. Be sure to check the observations tab found HERE. We will continue to post observations and any reported avalanches every day.
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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The new storm snow should bond well to the rough and warm snow surface. However, if we end up with the upper end of the forecasted snow amounts, we could see soft slab or loose dry avalanches failing within the storm snow, and these avalanches could pack a punch. New snow typically stabilizes quickly (within 24-48 hrs), and it's easy to use small test slopes to see how the new snow is behaving before committing to steep, sustained terrain. Natural and human-triggered avalanches will be possible.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Currently the winds continue to blow from the southerly direction at speeds in the 20's and 30's mph range across the upper elevations. Around midnight tonight, the winds are forecasted to veer northwest and blow 20-30 mph with gusts into the 40's and 50's at 10,000'. Overnight and into the morning hours, there will be plenty of new snow to blow around, so don't let your guard down and keep an eye out for fresh drifts of wind-blown snow across the mid and upper elevations for the next few days.