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Forecast for the Salt Lake Area Mountains

Dave Kelly
Issued by Dave Kelly on
Monday morning, January 2, 2023
Dangerous Avalanche Conditions exist. Avoid traveling on or underneath slopes over 30 degrees.
The avalanche danger remains HIGH at the mid and upper elevations. Natural and human triggered avalanches are likely. On northwest through easterly facing aspects, avalanches may step down into older facets, leading to large and destructive avalanches. The lowest elevation terrain has a CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger.
Yesterday ski area and road operations reported large avalanches 4-6' deep and up to 600' wide running on the buried November facets. These avalanches would be unsurvivable.
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Avalanche Warning
THE FOREST SERVICE UTAH AVALANCHE CENTER IN SALT LAKE CITY HAS CONTINUED A BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WARNING WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY 6AM MST TO TUESDAY 6AM MST...
* WHAT...The avalanche danger is HIGH across northern, central, southeast, and southwest Utah.
* WHERE...For most mountains in Utah and southeast Idaho, including the Wasatch Range, Bear River Range, Uinta Range, Manti-Skyline, Fish Lake Region, La Sal and Abajo Mountains of Southeastern Utah, Pavant Range, Tushar Range, and Cedar City area mountains.
* WHEN...In effect from 6AM MST this morning to 6AM MST Tuesday
* IMPACTS...Very dangerous avalanche conditions exist. Natural and human triggered avalanches are likely on many slopes and may be triggered at a distance. Stay off of and out from under slopes steeper than 30 degrees.
Weather and Snow
Under overcast skies most locations are reporting 3-5" of low density snow. Trailhead temperatures are in the low 20's F while temperatures at 11,000' ridgelines are in the high teens F. Winds are calm at most locations.
Today, continued light snowfall with 2-5" of snow expected. Temperatures will be 22-29 F. Winds at the 9000' ridgelines will blow from the southeast 15 gusting to 25 MPH this morning and at the 11,000' ridgelines southeast 20 gusting to 25 MPH. Winds are forecasted to shift to the north and northwest this afternoon with the potential for more snow in the Upper Cottonwoods.
Storm totals thus far:
  • Upper Cottonwoods: 32"-43" Snow/3.25-4.6" SWE
  • Park City: 27-39"Snow /3.5" SWE
  • Ogden mountains: 23-32"Snow /2.7-4" SWE
  • Provo mountains: 42" Snow/8.6" SWE
Snow stakes sit at 100-115" in the Cottonwoods and 70-80" along the PC ridge. 70-80" in Ogden, 75-85" in Provo.
Recent Avalanches
Yesterday there were reports of natural and explosive triggered avalanches on all aspects from ski area and highway operations throughout the state. Some of these avalanches were 4-6' deep and 600' wide. These avalanches would have been un-survivable.
Backcountry skiers reported avalanches running on density changes within the new snow. This one in Porter Fork was remote triggered, while this one on Murdock was intentionally triggered.
This slide in Little Cottonwood Canyon was explosive triggered.
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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Fluctuating temperatures and wind drifting throughout the storm have created a number of layers within the new snow where an avalanche could be initiated. Once a soft slab avalanche of new snow starts it could step down to the November persistent weak layer creating a much larger avalanche. You may not see signs of instability such as cracking or collapsing in the new snow. Avoid getting lured onto steeper slope than you had planned. The new snow alone is deep enough to bury or injure a person that is caught in an avalanche.
Today, I would be giving the new snow layers time to bond and the deeper weak layers time to heal. There is great riding to be had on lower angle terrain.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
This is a significant loading event for our buried weak layers from November. These layers are buried deeply in the upper reaches of the Cottonwoods and may be more prone to triggering in terrain north of BCC: along the PC ridgeline, Mill Creek, and other shallower areas. These avalanches will be most problematic on northwest to easterly facing aspects at all elevations, but we cannot rule out the other aspects at this time.
These are unsurvivable avalanches. These slopes may not give you warning signs such as cracking and collapsing. The Reynolds slide stands out to me as an early indicator of other steep slopes with a buried PWL and I would correlate this to steeper higher elevation areas in Mineral Fork and Broads Fork where I would expect that the same style of avalanche occurred during the storm. I will be giving these slopes some time to adjust to the new snow. Today, I would not travel on steep slopes where the PWL could be present.
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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