Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Brooke Maushund
Issued by Brooke Maushund on
Sunday morning, January 4, 2026

The avalanche danger is MODERATE on W-N-SE facing slopes above 9500' where the wind continues to drift new snow into slabs over a foot deep. These avalanches have the potential to run far and fast on the slick crust below. Smaller wind slabs may prove effective triggers for deeper, destructive slides on a persistent weak layer more than 100 feet wide. Steep, rocky, wind-exposed northerly slopes are most suspect. If the storm comes in earlier than forecast this afternoon, expect danger to rise to CONSIDERABLE by the end of the day.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
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Weather and Snow

Yesterday, sustained moderate to strong winds out of the SW continued to blow, while there wasn't a ton of fresh precipitation to transport (as it mostly fell as rain) except for at upper elevations in the Provo zone.

Today, a weather system moves in on SW flow later this afternoon. Temps remain just below freezing, along with assistance from the SW winds that will increase to moderate to strong today. The moisture arrives later this afternoon, with snow lines starting around 8k' before dropping closer to 6.4k' overnight. "Timing is everything," I think is how the saying goes, but it's notoriously hard to forecast. The crystal ball this morning is showing things play out as so, with less certainty the farther out:

  • Provo Peak area: 0.4-0.6 inches snow // 0.1-0.2 inches H2O by 5pm —— 4-6 inches snow // .4-.6 inches H2O by 8am Monday
  • Aspen Grove area: 0.5-0.7 inches snow // 0.2-0.3 inches H2O by 5pm —— 10-13 inches snow // 1.5-1.9 inches H2O by 8am

Late tonight into tomorrow, the bulk of the moisture arrives. Snowfall will linger Monday afternoon until tapering into the evening. Winter seems to be arriving, as more colder systems inch towards us later next week. Cross your fingers, and keep checking the often more hopeful model, the GFS—or as we sometimes call it: the Great Friend of Skiers.

Recent Avalanches

Yesterday, there were no new avalanche reports from the backcountry. Provo has been generally quiet the last few days.

In the Central Cottonwoods, Ski patrol teams reported a wet snow surface at the lower elevations of their mountains, allowing for easy push avalanches, or snow pushing on the supportable crust, along with one report of an explosive-triggered soft slab. Observations also noted sensitive wind-drifted snow at upper elevation ridgelines.

Find all the Provo observations HERE.

Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

The most recent storm pulse laid down more than a foot of new dense, and wet snow in favored areas. Sustained winds out of the SW drifted this snow into fresh slabs and pillows at upper and exposed mid-elevations that face W-N-E. In some areas, you'll be able to find pockets of wind-drifted snow close to 2 feet deep that will be reactive to your body weight, with the potential to run fast and far on the slick Christmas Eve Rain Crust. Cracking along the surface is a sign you've likely found a slab.

These slides will be pockety, found mostly near ridgeline in catchment zones like the entry to tighter terrain. This type of terrain is also where these types of smaller slides can be the most consequential. If the sun comes for long periods or the temperatures rise more than forecast today, expect the possibility of being able to move small panels of wet new snow.

There remains an unlikely possibility for one of these shallower slides to step down to a more destructive slab avalanche running on weak snow near the ground—more info on that below.

Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Due to the supportability of the Christmas Eve Rain Crust (CERC) in the majority of terrain, it's unlikely that you can trigger a slab avalanche on the persistent weak layer. However, if you did, it has the potential to be a large, destructive, and potentially fatal avalanche.

Today, we bumped the likelihood of the PWL down to unlikely. This means that slabs running on weak snow below the CERC can range from unreactive to stubborn, however we want to stress that this does NOT mean that these are entirely off the menu if you head to just the wrong spot. The PWL is largely dependent on the supportability of the CERC above it. In higher, wind-exposed, W-N-E terrain where the snowpack may be thinner, the CERC may prove less supportable. These areas are most suspect for triggering a large slide. Some mid-elevation slopes fit this bill as well.

General Announcements

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.