Forecast - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Issued by Drew Hardesty on
Wednesday morning, December 31, 2025

Areas of MODERATE avalanche danger seem isolated to steep and rocky, upper elevation west to north to east facing terrain. By definition, large avalanches (1-2' deep) may be triggered in isolated terrain. Otherwise, exercise normal caution with wet loose sluffs on the solar aspects with daytime heating and avoid any recent deposits of wind blown snow high in the alpine.

Note that slide-for-life conditions exist on many steep slopes with the slick rain crust.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Weather and Snow

Skies are clear. Winds are light. Temps are already warm - they're in the low to upper 30s(!). For today, look for mostly sunny skies but with increasing high clouds portending the next storm. Temps today will spike into the mid to upper 40s; winds will be light from the southwest. A storm is poised to arrive tonight through Friday that may user in 4-8" of heavy dense snow. The rain-snow line is expected to be around 8-8500', at least along the first part of the storm. It's possible that my snow numbers are on the low end, so stay tuned to how this storm develops.

Coverage is thin, but UAC forecaster Bo Torrey braved the "thickets" to get up to 9200' in upper Big Springs of the South Fork on Monday. His excellent report is HERE. There, he found mostly stable conditions but did not get on any steep slopes. He confirmed a poor snowpack structure that may be triggered in isolated terrain.

Recent Avalanches

We didn't hear of any avalanches in the Provo area mountains yesterday but for some minor wet loose sluffs.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

The snowpack structure is fairly complicated right now. A PWL (persistent weak layer) of faceted snow is buried 1-2' down. Below the post-Christmas storm lies a very slick and - in many areas - very thick (up to four inch thick) Christmas Eve rain crust (CERC) essentially capping the poor structure below. The structure has shown its cards, however, as a skier triggered a 2-3' deep and 70' wide hard slab on Sunset Peak in the Alta/Brighton backcountry on Sunday and a similar avalanche ran naturally beneath the Twins of Snowbird just down the street that same morning. Explosive control work pried out a couple similar hard slabs in nearby terrain that same day.

We've heard of nothing since. And nothing in the Provo mountains.

So what to make of it? I think it would be pretty difficult to find a place to trigger one of these hard slabs, but not impossible. If you were hunting, you might find trouble in upper elevation, thin, rocky terrain where the rain crust is thinner. The rain crust that collapsed on Sunset was only one inch thick (see Dave Kelly's excellent report HERE).

Photo of the Sunset avalanche from Sunday below. Note this avalanche was on very steep north facing terrain at 10,400'.

General Announcements

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

Backcountry Emergency Procedures