Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty on
Wednesday morning, March 4, 2026

A MODERATE avalanche danger exists on some slopes today and - without care - you may be able to trigger soft slabs of wind drifted snow or long running wet loose sluffs; each big enough to catch, carry and bury you. In isolated areas on the north side of the compass, it may be possible to trigger a hard slab that fails 1-2' deep on old weak faceted snow.

Evaluate snow and terrain carefully today. Full stop.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements

All four final avalanche accident reports (Caribou Basin, Butler Basin, Lake Mary Chutes, and Ant Knolls) have now been published. These are reports of four avalanche fatalities in five days spanning February 18th-February 22nd. You can find them all HERE>

Drone footage of the Caribou avalanche after avalanche control work had been conducted to reduce the risk to the SAR teams.

Thank you to everyone involved for sharing information. As with all avalanche accidents, we hope to learn something to prevent future accidents. Our deepest condolences go out to the families, friends, rescuers, and everyone affected by these tragic accidents.

Weather and Snow

Skies are clear. But not for long: we have a classic Wasatch storm on tap for tonight through late Friday.

Temps are in the upper 20s; winds - hardly a whisper yesterday - have increased out of the south-southwest and are blowing 10-15mph with gusts to 20. The high anemometers have hourly averages now in the 20s.

For today, we'll see increasing clouds, elevating winds, and temps again rising into the upper 30s up high, the 40s down low. A strong cold front arrives overnight, accompanied by heavy snowfall and plummeting temperatures. There is some chance of the lake effect kicking in and my overall storm totals are roughly 6-12"+ with an inch of water by later Friday. Our partners at the SLC National Weather Service have issued a Winter Storm Watch.

The Outlook: Some clearing for the weekend, with an somewhat active pattern for next week. The longer range models aren't in much agreement, so we'll see...

Recent Avalanches

We didn't hear of any activity in the backcountry yesterday, but in the southern part of the central Wasatch, numerous wind slabs and wet loose avalanches were noted.

Large natural wind slab noted off the American Fork Twins at roughly 11,000' southeasterly facing...

Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

You will be able to trigger lingering and developing soft slabs of wind drifted snow on all aspects (though more pronounced on north>southeast) in the upper elevation bands today. They will be more pockety in the mid-elevations. These wind drifts (slabs) will be up to 12" thick and some may be triggered at a distance in the afternoon. Note that we've had southwest wind, then northwest wind, and now the winds will ramp up again from the southwest today.

Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

While I do expect riders to be able to trigger some wet loose sluffs on solar aspects today, my sense is that enough wind and increasing cloud cover will keep the world entire from becoming unglued. STILL - pay attention to how the snow feels under your feet or ride and take note of rollerballs and other wet activity and adjust your travel accordingly.

Avalanche Problem #3
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

The weak January facets (Dry January Layer DJL) haven't gone away. With time, the likelihood of triggering one of these avalanches has diminished, but the uncertainty level has increased: when, where, and how might I trigger this monster today? Know that it may be possible for any new snow or wind slab avalanche to step down into these older weak layers, resulting in a more destructive avalanche. This possibility is perhaps more likely in and along thinner, rocky snowpack areas.

I would approach any steep slope that harbors this layer of facets with caution.

Additional Information

Forecaster's Corner: if you're out today, it'll be important to take a look at the snow surfaces. This will help to gauge how well the overnight storm snow may bond to these "old" snow surfaces. For example, if you're noting surface hoar or the surface is starting to square-off and facet, consider these "yellow flags" for conditions on Thurs/Friday. My own suspicion is that you may find some surface hoar and surface weaknesses this morning, but wind, sun, and temps may destroy most of it prior to tonight. But - science! - test your hypothesis.

General Announcements

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.