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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty for
Tuesday, March 26, 2019
Today the avalanche danger will rise earlier to CONSIDERABLE for wet avalanches on all steep sunlit slopes with sun and warming.
Natural and human triggered wet avalanches are certain on east, then south, then west facing slopes...and even include low and some mid elevation northerly terrain. Avoid being on or beneath the steep sun-drenched slopes when they've become wet and unstable. A pockety Moderate exists for areas of sensitive new wind drifts in the mid and upper elevations.
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Weather and Snow
Skies are mostly clear but for some high cirrus overhead. In the black of night, one could make out the moon-dog with these high streamers moving through. The south to southwesterlies picked up overnight and are blowing 15-20mph with gusts to 35. The most exposed ridgelines have hourly averages of 25-30mph with gusts to 35. As of 4am, temperatures are already in the upper-30s to low 40s. Snow surfaces will soften and become unstable much earlier with this fair-at-best refreeze. Upper elevation northerlies held the last vestiges of good riding, but they'll now have suffered a bit of wind damage. Evelyn was in the Provo mountains yesterday and her report can be found here.
With the ridge axis now just to the east, we'll see high thin clouds, moderate southwest winds, and scorching temperatures in the mountains. Many trailheads and base areas are forecast to reach near 60°F with ridgelines heading toward 40°F. Scorching temperatures will persist through Wednesday night when a disorganized system ushers in cooler temps and perhaps a few inches of snow.
Recent Avalanches
We did not hear of any avalanche activiy in the Provo mountains yesterday.
More reports and photos can be found in the Menu above (Observations and Avalanches)
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Spring wet avalanching is affected by a ton of factors relating to cloud cover, relative humidity, temperature, wind, albedo; the list goes on and on. Mitigating factors to potentially limit today's wet activity include the southwest wind and previous sun/temp damage. But for me, it's not enough. Today - owing to the warm overnight temps - the surface snow will thaw and become unstable much more quickly than yesterday. Natural and human triggered wet avalanche can again be expected in steep terrain on all but the steep northerly upper elevations. Much of the wet snow will be able to run fast and far on the underlying crusts.
Initial signs of instability include rollerballs, pinwheels, initially small sluffs. Finding yourself boot-top or trenching in the wet snow? These are signs to seek colder aspects or low angle terrain.
Timing is key. If you're reading this, you're probably too late to be on any steepest, most sustained slopes that'll see direct sun and heating. Plan your descents and exits accordingly.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Pockety wind drifts can be expected now primarily in the upper elevation northwest to north to northeast facing slopes. Most of Sunday's storm snow instabilities have settled out by now.
Additional Information
CORNICES will become more sensitive as they sag in the sweltering heat. These have become enormous this winter and destruction from cornice failure has been well observed and documented this week. INFO.
ROOF-ALANCHES are also expected with the sun and temperatures. PLEASE spread the word to other homeowners in the mountains. Roof-alanche fatalities have occurred in the West this year with many close calls.
General Announcements
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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