Forecast: Provo Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Issued by Dave Kelly for
Monday, February 6, 2023

Today there is a CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger on upper-elevation slopes for triggering a wind-drifted snow avalanche. There is a MODERATE danger on mid elevation slopes for new-snow avalanches. There is a LOW danger for new snow avalanches on lower elevation terrain where there has been less snow.

In the highest elevation terrain riders can expect soft and hard slabs of wind-drifted snow 1-2' deep. Out of the wind zone riders can expect to see loose dry avalanches running on density changes within the storm snow.

These are the types of new snow avalanches that will be very sensitive to riders while ascending and descending. Practice good travel technique and only expose one person to a slope at a time while traveling in avalanche terrain.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Weather and Snow

Under overcast skies it is currently snowing lightly. Trailhead temperatures are 24-28 F while the 8000' ridgeline temperatures are in the high teens F. Winds are blowing from the south southwest 15 gusting to 20 MPH at the 8000' ridgelines. Today, winds will blow from the southwest 15 gusting to 25 MPH at the 9000' ridgelines and 30 gusting to 50 MPH at the 11,000' ridgelines. Winds will shift to the north and decrease throughout the day. Snow will continue through the afternoon with 3-4" of snow expected.

Overnight and Storm Totals (total height of snow)

Provo Area Mountains 5" snow/ .3-.5" water storm totals with 1-2" snow overnight (total depth 100-110")
Big and Little Cottonwood Canyons 8-13" snow/ .35-.65" water storm totals with 2-4" snow overnight (total depth 60-145")

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory effective until 5:00 pm Monday.

Recent Avalanches

Two skiers were caught while ascending in the Ogden area mountains near Willard Peak. While this avalanche is not in the Provo area mountains it is similar to conditions you might find in wind-loaded areas in the Provo area mountains. There was one report of collapsing on southeast facing USA Bowl at 9700' just north of the Provo area mountains. This southeast aspect is an area where we had a run of avalanches running on a persistent weak layer above a crust last week. While we haven't seen any activity on this layer in the last few days there are still places where you may trigger an avalanche on this persistent weak layer on a southeast facing aspect. Dig down and determine if there is a crust present with weak grains of faceted snow. If you get propagation results with an extended column test then I would avoid traveling on that slope.

See the full list of avalanche activity where you can filter avalanches by region and date.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Although lower elevations in the Provo area mountains reported 5" of new snow, I would expect higher snowfall amounts are likely in the higher elevations of the Provo area mountains. Look for sensitive slabs of soft and hard wind-drifted snow 1-2' deep that will be sensitive to backcountry travelers at higher elevations and in cross-loaded areas and terrain features.

On Saturday riders reported sensitive slabs of wind-drifted snow 10-12" deep on Cold Fusion. I would expect these slabs of wind drifted snow will be deeper today.

Photo (Caleb)

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Yesterday there were natural soft slab avalanches running on steep slopes and riders were able to trigger loose-dry avalanches on steep north facing terrain running on a density change within the new snow. I would expect this density change to be the most reactive when it is snowing hard and this new snow storm instability to settle throughout the day. At this point in the season any hint of sun is more than enough to trigger natural loose avalanches on steep slopes, road cuts, or roofs.

These are the types of new snow avalanches that will be very sensitive to riders while ascending and descending. You may trigger a soft slab avalanche on your ascent as you work into higher elevation terrain.

Additional Information

Updated 8:04AM

Ed LaChapelle and Monty Atwater worked in Little Cottonwood Canyon in the 1950's. Atwater put together Ten Contributory Factors for avalanche hazard evaluation in 1954. Check out his typewritten notes on direct action slab avalanches that are still relevant to today's avalanche problems HERE.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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