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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Trent Meisenheimer
Issued by Trent Meisenheimer on
Tuesday morning, February 28, 2017

The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE for wind slabs at upper elevation wind loaded slopes. Lots of low density snow is available for transport and will create dangerous avalanche conditions this morning and afternoon as the winds increase. Out of the wind and at mid to low elevations you'll find a MODERATE avalanche danger for loose dry and soft storm slab avalanches. Cornices are huge and will break back further than expected.

IF THE WINDS PICK UP WHERE YOU ARE, THE AVALANCHE DANGER WILL INSTANTLY RISE TO CONSIDERABLE. Quickly get out of the wind drifted terrain by heading to a lower elevation or a different aspect.

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Weather and Snow

A classic Utah cold front came sweeping across the valley yesterday delivering an impressive 8-15" (0.78-1.11'' h20) inches of new snow in the past 24hrs. I can still hear my dad and his old friends in the background of my mind talking about the good old days. You know - when it used to snow - with fixed gripped lifts, no waiting in lines, no split-boards, skinny skis (210's for men), the Chuting Gallery wasn't even written yet. Oh the good old days! Loving the classic Utah cold fronts...

Clouds will quickly fill in this morning as another small system brings snow showers to the mountains. Current temperatures are cold with 10,000' stations in the single digits. Winds are calm and out of the NW with speeds of 5-15 mph with gusts into the low 20's at 10,000'.

Recent Avalanches

The Provo range went through a natural avalanche cycle yesterday during the high precipitation rates where long running new snow avalanches moved with ease. Backcountry riders reported that slope cuts easily produced long running loose dry avalanches all confined to the new snow. Avalanche control teams also confirmed that loose dry avalanches were running long distances and some deep enough to bury a person.

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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

With up to 24" inches of light fluffy blower pow, it's hard not to imagine wind slabs off the higher and more exposed terrain. This morning and overnight the winds were generally calm out of the northwest. However, we have another small system moving in this morning that will likely bump wind speeds out of the west. There is plenty of new snow for even the smallest amount of wind to grab and deposit fresh drifts onto the lee aspects. Keep in mind that conditions could change with the blink of an eye if winds increase.

Hot tip: lose the wind and lose the danger. Out of the wind zone slab avalanches shouldn't be a problem and you can switch your focus to a more predictable avalanche problem. See loose dry below.

Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Riders will be able to trigger loose dry avalanches on steep slopes today. Once these sluffs get going, they can run fast and far, especially in continuously steep confined terrain. Most of the sluffs will be within the storm snow, but on southerly facing slopes and at the lower elevations they could run on the hard ice crusts beneath, giving them that extra distance and bulk. These loose dry avalanches could be large enough to catch, carry and bury a person.

  • Cracking in the new snow will tell you that a slab is beginning to form and storm slab avalanches could be triggered. If you notice this it's time to move to lower angle terrain (slopes less than 32 degrees) and keep the good times rolling.
Avalanche Problem #3
Cornice
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

It's hard to predict when or where cornices will break. However, there are a couple things we know:

  1. They will continue growing today with the new snow and winds which will add more weight, thus adding more stress and making them more likely to break.
  2. The nice thing is you can see cornices.... They exist on ridge lines, we also can avoid being under or on top of them, which eliminates the danger.
Additional Information

Clouds will start filling in this morning as another small cold front pushes through northern Utah. It will remain cold today with upper elevation temperatures barely climbing into the teens before dipping back down into the single digits tonight. Westerly winds are forecasted to increase ahead of this small system this morning and into the afternoon. You can expect upper elevations to see wind speeds of 15-25 mph with gusts into the 30's. Mid elevations will see speeds in the 10-20 mph range with the occasional gust into the 20's. This system will likely bring 2-4" of low density snow by the dinner hour.

General Announcements

Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche conditions. You can also call us at 801-524-5304, email by clicking HERE, or include #utavy in your tweet or Instagram.

To get help in an emergency (to request a rescue) in the Wasatch, call 911. Be prepared to give your GPS coordinates or the run name. Dispatchers have a copy of the Wasatch Backcountry Ski map.

Backcountry Emergencies. It outlines your step-by-step method in the event of a winter backcountry incident.

If you trigger an avalanche in the backcountry, but no one is hurt and you do not need assistance, please notify the nearest ski area dispatch to avoid a needless response by rescue teams. Thanks.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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