Forecast: Provo Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Issued by Dave Kelly on
Tuesday morning, February 20, 2024

The avalanche danger in the Provo Area Mountains is CONSIDERABLE where you are likely to trigger a wind-drifted snow avalanche near ridgetops and on the leeward side of terrain features at higher elevations. This storm pattern is ideal for the Provo area to receive higher precipitation rates and the likelihood of rain on snow means natural wet snow avalanches are possible at mid and low elevations.

Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making will be essential today and if in doubt travel on terrain less than 30 ° in steepness.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Join the UAC and Inspired Summit Adventures for the grand opening of our new Transceiver Training Park at Pinebrook, Sunday, February 25, from 3:00-6:00PM.

Weather and Snow

This morning, under overcast skies temperatures are in the low 30's °F. Winds are blowing from the southwest 15 gusting to 40 MPH 8,000' ridgelines. Overnight we received 1"-2" of snow with .29"-78" of water weight for a storm total of 7"-8" with higher snowfall amounts in higher elevation terrain.

Today, look for overcast skies, mild temperatures 36°-40° F and winds blowing from the south-southwest 15 gusting to 20 MPH at the 9,000' ridgelines and 25 gusting to 45 MPH at the 11,000' ridgelines with isolated gusts to 55 MPH. We can expect to see intermittent snow showers through the day with 3"-7" of new snow and .40"-1" of water by late afternoon. This may fall as rain below 7500'. There is a chance of lightning and periods of increased precipitation where we might go over on our snow and water numbers in some locations.

Our partners at the National Weather Service have issued a Winter Weather Advisory through 10pm Wednesday night.

Recent Avalanches

Yesterday, we had no reports of avalanches from the Provo Area Mountains.

North of the Provo Area Mountains we had reports of wind-drifted snow avalanches on Superior in Little Cottownood Canyon, Pioneer Ridge in Big Cottonwood Canyon, and a cornice triggered slide in West Porter that slid on a similar layer to that of the 3 Temptations. There was a wet snow avalanche from Sunday that resulted in a close call for an ascending group in Little Cottonwood Canyon and is similar to what you might find at low elevations in the Provo Area Mountains.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Expect to see wind-drifts that could be 6"-24" deep and up to 150' wide. You may not see signs of wind-drifted snow, such as pillow-shaped deposits as they will be buried under the newest snow. There was a large natural wind-drifted snow avalanche reported from Ben Lomond and I would expect that we could see similar avalanches in high alpine terrain along the Cascade or Timp Ridgelines. Cornices are a sign of wind-loading and may be sensitive today breaking further back than you expect.

Video of active wind-loading on the Park City Ridgeline (Malone)

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

With warm temperatures and a rain line to 7500' we may possibly see wet snow avalanches today. Roller balls, pinwheels, and sinking down into the surface snow are signs of instability. If the snow is saturated move to cooler snow at a higher elevation. Any dry snow avalanche that starts in the Provo Area Mountains could turn into a wet snow debris pile as it travels downslope.

These avalanches are difficult to predict or time and often affect travelers that are not traveling in the starting zones. Stay out from underneath steep runout zones today especially during periods of higher precipitation.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

A weak interface made up of a crust with small facets above it has been found on east-southeast and west aspects and maybe found on southerly aspects at mid and upper elevations. This crust is now buried 1'-2' deep. The stubborn and unpredictable nature of this layer means you may trigger an avalanche on this layer remotely. This avalanche problem is spotty-meaning that a snowpit in one location may not tell you if the slope you want to travel on has this buried layer. Assess each slope individually before committing to steep terrain on these aspects. Cracking and collapsing are signs that this layer is present. The tricky part is that this layer is buried on slopes we normally consider "safer".

The early season persistent weak layer (PWL) avalanche problem is moving in the right direction as more snow is added to the snowpack, and the weak layer near the ground continues to gain strength. Triggering an avalanche on this layer may occur in an isolated area where it is thin, rocky and steep and likely places that avalanched earlier this month (repeater avalanches).

February 15th and 16th were the last two reported avalanches failing on this layer. They occurred on northwest facing slopes at 10,500' that most likely loaded from the southerly wind event. If an avalanche were to be triggered in the PWL, it would be 4'-6' deep and well over a 100' wide primarily on northwest-north-northeast aspects at high elevations.

Additional Information

Mark describes how to identify thin facets above a crust on aspects where we don't normally see avalanches. The Provo Area Mountains have more snow (thicker slab) over this weak layer.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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