Forecast: Provo Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Issued by Nikki Champion on
Monday morning, December 30, 2024

The avalanche danger is HIGH on all upper-elevation aspects and mid-elevation slopes facing northwest through north and east, where new snowfall and strong winds have created very dangerous conditions.

Any avalanche triggered in the wind-drifted or new snow could step down 1-6 feet into weak faceted layers, resulting in large, dangerous, and potentially deadly avalanches. Natural and human-triggered avalanches are likely.

What to do: Avoid avalanche terrain today. Stick to slopes less than 30 degrees, and stay well away from slopes connected to or below anything steeper than 30 degrees.

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Avalanche Warning

What: The avalanche danger for the warning area is HIGH today
Where: For the mountains of Northern Utah, and Southeastern Idaho, including the Uintas...Wasatch Range...Bear River Range...Wellsville Mountains

Impacts: Recent heavy snow combined with strong wind is creating widespread areas of unstable snow. Both human-triggered and natural avalanches are likely.

What to do: Avoid all avalanche terrain. Stay off of and out from under slopes steeper than 30°. Carry and know how to use avalanche rescue equipment. Find safer riding conditions on slopes less than 30° with no overhead hazard

Warning Times: Monday December 30, 2024 - 6:00am to Tuesday, December 31, 2024 - 6:00am

Weather and Snow

This morning, skies are overcast, and snow continues to fall across the range. Temperatures are in the upper teens to mid-20s °F. Winds have decreased overnight, now blowing west-northwest at 10-25 mph, with gusts up to 40 mph. Near the highest ridges, gusts are still reaching 40 mph, down from overnight peaks of 100 mph along nearby ridgelines. In the last 24 hours weather stations have reported trace amounts to 1" of new snow which brings our storm totals to 14"-25" of snow and up to 3" of water.

Today, The Pacific Northwest storm system will exit the area this morning. Snow should taper off by afternoon, with an additional trace to 2" expected in the mountains. Winds will continue to ease throughout the day, averaging 10-15 mph at mid-elevations and 15-25 mph at the highest peaks, with gusts up to 40 mph. Temperatures will rise into the upper-20s °F.

Looking Ahead: A gradual warming trend will take hold this week. A weak storm will graze northern Utah Wednesday into early Thursday, bringing 1-3" of snow to the northern mountains. Another, potentially stronger system is expected this weekend, with 6-12" of snow possible for the northern and central mountains, depending on its track and intensity.

Recent Avalanches

For the Provo area a three-part storm triggered a widespread avalanche cycle from December 27–29. Strong winds, dense snow, and rain overloaded weak facets, causing avalanches ranging from 10"-36" deep, 200'-2,500' wide, and up to 3,000' vertical. A rain crust formed below 8,000' after the storm. In addition to the numerous avalanches reported by UDOT Provo, an additional 45 backcountry avalanches were reported to the Utah Avalanche Center from the Salt Lake, Provo, and Ogden area mountains. Of these, 4 occurred in the Provo area. Many of the avalanches were triggered remotely or from a distance, with failures reaching multiple feet deep and over a thousand feet wide.

Notable avalanches include:

Timp: Pika Cirque (West and Center), Bomber Bowl, Entire Timp Cirque Head Wall, The Grunge and Side Apron, Wooley Hole, NE Chute, N Elk Chute.

Cascade Cirque: Most of the area.

Provo Area: Provo Hole, East Face, No Money Down, Chablis (Upper and Mid), Slide Canyon (Mid Zone), Lost Creek (Gunner's Left), Spring Falls Chute.

Bunnells: White Limbo, Middle, Bimbo.

Big Springs: Big Bowls 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.

Below is the avalanche heat map highlighting recent activity across the Salt Lake, Provo, and Ogden area mountains. For detailed observations and reports, check out all avalanche observations HERE.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

A widespread persistent weak layer (PWL) of faceted snow is now buried under feet of recent storm snow, creating dangerous avalanche conditions.

Strong winds and heavy snowfall have overloaded this weak layer, resulting in nearly 50 avalanches over the past three days, many of which were triggered naturally or remotely. With ongoing elevated winds and more overnight snowfall, avalanches on this PWL will only grow larger.

Avoid being on, underneath, or adjacent to slopes steeper than 30° in steepness. These slides can be triggered remotely, from a distance, or even from below.

Recent avalanches were reported from the Ant Knolls zone, including the Ant Knolls ridgeline, Ant Eater, Ant Hill, and other steep E-NE-E slopes above 9,000'. These avalanches likely occurred on the old faceted snow, with some possibly triggered by wind loading. This is an example of the type of avalanche we could see today.

Water percolating to the persistent weak layer at lower and mid elevations could trigger large avalanches, as seen Saturday with UDOT Provo reports of slides up to 2,400' wide and 2,000' vertical; while colder temperatures today reduce the risk, be alert to rapid warming, as dry avalanches could become wet and more dangerous, especially for ice climbers or those below steep slopes.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Northwesterly winds were cranking overnight, with gusts over 100 mph. With snow available for transport, we'll find both soft and hard slabs of wind-drifted snow on all upper and mid-elevation slopes. With winds this strong, we could even see drifts in lower-elevation terrain features that allow snow to accumulate. These high winds can load any aspect as they swirl and cross-load snow across the mountains.

These smooth, rounded pillows of wind-drifted snow may look inviting, but they’re sitting on top of very weak surface layers. While these drifts alone could catch and carry a rider, combined with buried persistent weak layers, they could trigger much larger avalanches, breaking 1-6 feet deep and nearly 2000 feet wide.

The best riding will be in sheltered, lower-angle terrain out of the wind.

Out of the wind zone: There may be sensitive new snow. Shallow avalanches, including sluffs and soft slabs, are likely, especially at upper elevations that avoided rain. At lower elevations, new snow on the rain crust may cause poor bonding, but slides will be shallower. Watch for instability signs like cracking and sluffing

Additional Information

It's not all doom and gloom. This weak layer will settle out eventually and, in the meantime, you can travel on slopes less than 30° in steepness, check out some of our free online learning, or work on your rescue skills in lower angle meadows.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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