Forecast: Provo Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Issued by Dave Kelly on
Sunday morning, December 29, 2024

The avalanche danger is HIGH in upper-elevation terrain, and on mid-elevation northerly facing terrain. Avalanches may break 1'-6' deep and over 1800' wide. Natural and human-triggered avalanches are likely.

There is a CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger on all other slopes and elevations where the potential for wet slab avalanches overrunning lower elevation terrain is a concern.

With this most recent storm, high winds, and rapid warming coming in on top of a very weak early season snowpack avoid traveling on or UNDER any slope greater than 30°.

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Avalanche Warning

What: The avalanche danger for the warning area is HIGH today
Where: For the mountains of Northern Utah, and Southeastern Idaho, including the Uintas...Wasatch Range...Bear River Range...Wellsville Mountains

Impacts: Recent heavy snow combined with strong wind is creating widespread areas of unstable snow. Both human-triggered and natural avalanches are likely

What to do: Avoid all avalanche terrain. Stay off of and out from under slopes steeper than 30°. Carry and know how to use avalanche rescue equipment. Find safer riding conditions on slopes less than 30° with no overhead hazard

Warning Times: Sunday, December 29, 2024 - 6:00am to Monday, December 30, 2024 - 6:00am

Weather and Snow

Currently, under partly cloudy skies trailhead temperatures are in the high 30's °F and the highest ridgelines are in the 20's °F. Winds at the lower ridgelines are blowing from the southwest in the mid 20's gusting to the 40's. In the last 24 hours weather stations have reported 1"-4" of new snow which brings our storm totals to 14"-24" of snow and 1.5"-3" of water. There was a riming event last night at the higher elevations.

If you've ever wanted to experience a coastal style storm, we're in the midst of one right now. It makes for great base building but isn't always the most pleasant or safest while it's happening.

For today, building clouds with light snowfall possible. Temperatures will be 38-46 °F. There is a chance we could see rain at lower elevations later this afternoon. Winds will blow primarily from a southwesterly direction 20 gusting to 40 MPH at the lower ridgelines and 50 gusting to 70 MPH at the higher and more exposed ridgelines. As the jet stream tracks directly over Northern Utah, we could see wind gusts pushing 90 MPH this afternoon on the highest peaks.

Recent Avalanches

Yesterday, there were 3 backcountry avalanches reported to the Utah Avalanche Center from the Provo Region. Nikki reported an avalanche near Pole Line Pass (photo below) on a north facing slope at 9,300' and UDOT Provo reported 2 large avalanches in Slide Canyon and Lost Creek. Ski area operations reported avalanche activity with control work.

You can check out all avalanche observations from the Provo region HERE.

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Buried under the newest storm snow is a weak layer of faceted snow. This weak snow has now been and will continue to be overloaded creating dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid being on, underneath, or adjacent to slopes steeper than 30° in steepness. Avalanches involving persistent weak layers (PWL's) can be triggered remotely (from a distance). On her field day in Snake Creek, Nikki found lots of signs of weak snow and shooting cracks.

This photo of a shooting crack and the thunderous collapse accompanying it on a northeast aspect at 8,800' are more than enough to get my attention.

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Once the winds start to blow at these speeds all bets are off when it comes to the location of wind drifted snow. Strong westerly winds can kick around in the lower drainages and blow due east. Keep any eye out for wind loaded areas of new snow and stay off of and out from under slopes greater than 30° in steepness. These wind drifted snow avalanches could be enough to catch and carry a rider, however combined with the buried persistent weak layers this could make for much larger avalanches breaking 1'-6' deep and up to 1800' wide. The very nature of strong winds is that they will load slopes on all aspects regardless of wind direction.

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If water were to percolate down to persistent weak layer at lower and mid elevations then it will create a problem. Yesterday, UDOT Provo reported large avalanches failing at the rain/snow line up to 2400' wide and running 2000' vertical. With reports of heavy rainfall in the Provo area yesterday I would avoid being underneath any steep slope with a long runout. What may start as a dry wind-drifted snow avalanche could turn into a large wet mass of snow as it reaches lower elevations. This will be of particular concern to ice climbers in gully features or dog walkers and hikers that are travelling on snow free ground underneath avalanche paths.

Additional Information

It's not all doom and gloom. This weak layer will settle out eventually and, in the meantime, you can travel on slopes less than 30° in steepness, check out some of our free online learning, or work on your rescue skills in lower angle meadows.

General Announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

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