Forecast: Provo Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Issued by Trent Meisenheimer for
Saturday, December 23, 2023

The avalanche danger will likely rise to MODERATE across the mid and upper elevations as a small storm impacts the mountains of northern Utah.

Continue to maintain safe travel habits; this means exposing one person at a time to avalanche terrain, having someone watch them from a safe location, and not traveling above or below other parties.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Weather and Snow

For the past week, we have all been anxiously awaiting this morning's small but very welcome storm. It's lightly raining in the valleys and snowing in the mountains. The cold front should slide overhead around 8:00 am where we will see the heaviest snowfall for a few hours. Later in the afternoon, the snowfall will turn more showery as high pressure quickly returns on Sunday. All said and done we could see 3-6 inches of new snow by tonight.

It's nice to see the temperatures below freezing this morning as current mountain temperatures range from 27-32 °F. Winds are now blowing from the northwest at speeds of 5-10 mph across the upper elevations. As the cold front passes this morning, I would expect a slight bump in the wind speeds as the northwest winds are forecast to blow 10-15 mph with gusts into the upper 20s.

Recent Avalanches

No avalanches were reported from the backcountry.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

As you travel across upper elevation ridgelines be on the lookout for fresh drifts of wind-blown snow. These shallow, soft slabs of wind-drifted snow will likely be less than a foot deep, but they could be reactive today, especially on slopes where the old snow surface is weak and faceted (northerly-facing terrain).

Remember to use simple techniques like small test slopes, shovel tilt tests, and slope cuts to see if the snow is stable or unstable.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

It's been roughly 14 days since our last significant snowfall. Since then, our snow surface has taken a beating from the sun, wind, temps, and time. This has made our current snow surface highly variable. Therefore, I would be on the lookout today as avalanche conditions change with the new snowfall.

Everything will depend on how much new snow we get. If we get an inch of snow, I doubt the avalanche conditions will change at all. If we start pushing the six-inch range, then I would expect things to change and perhaps become more active and we could start seeing avalanches. Especially on slopes where the old snow surface is weak and faceted (northerly-facing terrain).

Additional Information

What happened to the Persistent Weak Layer (PWL) problem? The PWL problem first appeared in the December 1 forecast and was removed from the forecast on Wednesday, December 20. On Thursday, December 21, forecasters Nikki Champion and Greg Gagne talked about the PWL problem over a Zoom call and their 5-minute discussion. Be sure to watch the video.

General Announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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