Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty for
Tuesday, December 12, 2023
Areas of MODERATE danger exist in steep terrain of the mid and upper elevations.
On these westerly to northerly to easterly facing aspects, it will still be possible to trigger an avalanche 1-3' deep stepping into the old faceted snow from early season. Cracking and collapsing may or may not accompany unstable slopes. It may be possible to trigger shallow soft slabs of wind drifted snow on wind loaded slopes.
A LOW avalanche danger exists on many southerly aspects and on all low elevation slopes.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Skies are mostly cloudy as a weak cut-off upper level low pressure system moves south through the area. Mountain temperatures are in the upper 20s. Winds aloft are from the west southwest, blowing 10-15mph, but the anemometer at 8200' in Provo Canyon is showing winds from the northeast, blowing 20mph with gusts to 25mph. This may have to do with this weak system moving through with wrap-around winds, particularly in the canyons. Cloud cover should start to thin by the afternoon. Winds, particularly north of I-80, will shift and blow from the east tonight and tomorrow, with particularly strong speeds in and at the mouth of the canyons. Winds aloft may also be moderate to strong from the east in the Logan area mountains and along the Idaho border. Temperatures will be in the 20s.
High pressure builds for the foreseeable future. The tea leaves hint at a pattern change just after the Solstice but we'll see.
In the meantime, backcountry travel is easy and supportable (for now), the weather is benign, and avalanche conditions are on the mend.
Recent Avalanches
We haven't heard of any recent avalanches in the Provo area mountains and avalanche conditions are slowly starting to improve.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Triggering an avalanche 1-3' deep down into our old PWL persistent weak layer of facets and crusts is becoming less likely in most terrain. Although snowpits continue to show a poor structure and a "lively" interface between the strong slab over the weak facets, cracking and collapsing have become much less common. I suspect that this layering will become dormant in the days ahead. I do think it would be more likely to trigger one of these avalanches in thinner snowpack areas. (Read more about avalanches that involve PWLs here.)
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Elevated winds should keep you alert to unstable soft slabs of wind drifted snow in steep terrain. Avoid smooth rounded scallops of soft slab today. They should start to stabilize over the next day or two.
Additional Information
This is an excellent time to sharpen your avalanche rescue skills. Practice with your partners or take a companion rescue clinic.
General Announcements
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.