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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty on
Tuesday morning, November 27, 2018
Any slope with old sugary, faceted snow near the ground is dangerous. Stay off mid and upper elevation slopes facing northwest through easterly, where the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE and you can easily trigger avalanches breaking 1 to 3 feet deep. Avalanches can be triggered from a distance and from below. Upper elevation west and southeasterly facing slopes have patchier old snow, but can still produce avalanches. Watch for any developing wind drifts along the more exposed locations, particularly areas with an easterly component.
The danger is LOW on south and southwesterly facing slopes where the new snow landed on bare ground.
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Weather and Snow
The Thanksgiving weekend storm was a godsend for us and now 1-3' of snow exists, depending on elevation. The southern tier of the southern Wasatch (south fork) reportedly has more snow up high. Access, however, is still tough, with less than a foot of snow at the lower elevations. Hitting rocks and logs is common with the overall shallow snow pack.
Skies are mostly cloudy-becoming overcast with temps in the upper 20s to low 30s. West to southwest winds have increased to 20mph with gusts to 30.
I was in the Provo area mountains Sunday, and here are some photos showing snow coverage. Here's the full observation.
Recent Avalanches
No avalanches reported from the Provo area mountains. However, conditions at the mid and upper elevations are probably similar the the Salt Lake area mountains to the north, where there is easier access to the higher elevations and numerous avalanches being triggered. Check the Salt Lake forecast and the avalanche list for an idea of what the mid and upper elevations in the Provo area mountains may be like.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
It is very simple – steep slopes with old snow are dangerous. Any slope that was white with snow before Thanksgiving has weak, sugary facets near the ground. And now these slopes are loaded with new snow, they are continuing to produce avalanches 1 to 3 feet deep. Slides are being triggered from a distance and from on slope. Unfortunately, most slides are running in the upper layer of the facets, above the October rain crust, and not cleaning out lower facets or crusts.
These old faceted snow layers will remain a dangerous weak layer all week and will become even more reactive the next time it snows.
Here's a look of the snowpack at 8,500' on a north facing slope in the Provo area mountains, with the facets at the bottom. The weak facet layer depth will increase with elevation.
Avalanche Problem #2
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The lower elevations and sunny slopes that were bare ground before Thanksgiving have one to two feet of new snow sitting on dirt and rocks, and a low avalanche danger. Use normal caution - hitting rocks and stumps remains the greatest hazard.
If headed to the more exposed terrain, keep an eye on any winds and developing wind drifts to the lee of terrain features - these may be more sensitive than normal.
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