Check out our Holiday Auction - Sign Up for the Utah Snow and Avalanche Workshop (USAW)
Ad
The National Forest Service Logo
icon-add Observation
Forecasts
Logan Ogden Salt Lake Provo Uintas Skyline Moab Abajos Weather Archives How to read the forecast
Observations & Avalanches
Submit Observation Observations Explorer All Observations Avalanches Fatalities Place Names Map Archives
Education
Avalanche Awareness Develop Skills On-Snow Courses Resources and Tutorials
Events
Store
About
Contact Who we are Core Values Staff Board of Directors Past Forecasters Sponsors Annual Reports Sign In
Blog
icon-add Observation
Donate / Join

Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty on
Tuesday morning, November 26, 2024
The avalanche danger may reach CONSIDERABLE today in the mid and upper elevations, particularly on steep northwest to easterly facing aspects. Human triggered avalanches are likely, particularly in areas that see the most snow and wind. Avalanches may fail within the new storm snow and they may also fail in the old faceted snow.
Remember that cracking and collapsing are not to be ignored: they are key clues to instability. Remember also that some avalanches can be triggered at a distance, even from below.
Extra Caution should be advised with today's changing conditions.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
The 17th Annual Utah Snow and Avalanche Workshop (USAW) is scheduled for Saturday December 7th - Information and tickets available here.
Weather and Snow
Let's start with capital 'U' Uncertainty with how this whole decaying atmospheric river will play out. We used to call these storms The Pineapple Express because of their subtropical origins and they often led to wet warm and windy storms. But as always, the devil is in the details: Where will the firehose point?
As of 6am, the the Provo mountains have picked up 3-6" of snow with upwards of 0.6" of snow water equivalent. This is heavy dense snow. Temperatures have warmed radically over the past 24 hours, and are now in the upper 20s. Winds are 15-20mph with gusts to 30 from the southwest.
My best guess: We'll see continued heavy dense snowfall adding up to 8-14" by evening with upwards of 2" of SWE. Winds will blow 20-25mph from the west. THIS IS AVALANCHE WEATHER. A cold front pushes through around rush hour and snowfall rates will increase at this time with light snowfall continuing overnight.
By tomorrow, snowfall should start to peter out by mid-morning. Temps will be in the upper teens to low 20s. Winds will be light from the northwest.
The weather outlook does not look good. You may need binoculars to see the next storm. And even that may not help.
Recent Avalanches
None.
Ad
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Many solar aspects were bare, but the ones that held old snow are weak sugary and cohesionless. These are the slopes that will be prone to avalanching with today's heavy load of dense snow and wind. Northwest through east aspects will be suspect. Collapsing and cracking will be expected and avalanches can be triggered at a distance.
If I were out today (particularly in the afternoon after we've had more snow and wind), I would proceed very cautiously and listen for audible whumphs or collapses. I would jump on test slopes to see how they react. I'd watch for shooting cracks. I'd do a few Extended Column Tests and see how the snow reacts to these tests.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
New and developing soft slabs should be on your radar today. In some areas they will be sitting on yesterday's new drifts of wind blown snow. Any of today's developing wind drifts will be primarily confined to the lee of ridgelines at the mid and upper elevations and primarily on north to east facing slopes.
*I don't think there is enough pre-existing snow on many aspects to be a problem and so snow will generally be falling on mostly bare ground.
Avalanche Problem #3
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The heavy dense snow is coming in with high snowfall rates and on a warming trend... and will be sensitive to human provocation, particularly as the snow piles up. This may be most problematic in the mid and upper elevations.
*I don't think there is enough pre-existing snow on many aspects to be a problem and so snow will generally be falling on mostly bare ground.
General Announcements
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
Observations and Avalanches
Backcountry Emergency Procedures
Instagram
Facebook
Get Forecast Email
Previous Forecasts
Contact via email
Submit Observation
< Previous forecast
Next forecast >