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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Trent Meisenheimer
Issued by Trent Meisenheimer for
Saturday, November 25, 2023
Update for Saturday, November 25 at 6:40 AM
Today, we can expect dry-loose avalanches and small new snow soft slab avalanches across all aspects and elevations. On mid and upper-elevation northerly-facing slopes, it will be possible for a human to trigger an avalanche 1-3' deep that fails deeper in the snowpack on fragile faceted snow.
Evaluate the snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Natural avalanches will be unlikely; human-triggered avalanches will be possible.
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Special Announcements
Check uphill travel policies at resorts before you head up to their terrain.
Weather and Snow
Under cloudy skies, the last few snowflakes are being squeezed from the atmosphere. Mountain temperatures are cold and range from 8-19 °F. Winds have been hardly blowing and are generally less than ten mph across the upper elevations (10,000'). Above that, the wind is blowing from the north at speeds of 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph.
As the storm exits the stadium, high pressure will build into the area until mid-week. Snow totals are in:
  • Upper Little Cottonwood: 8-11” (0.51-0.71 water)
  • Big Cottonwood: 4-11” (0.48-0.71 water)
  • Park City Ridgeline 5-8” (0.40-0.46 water)
  • Provo Canyon 9” (0.73 water)
Recent Avalanches
No recent avalanche activity has been reported. There have been a few observations and you can find there HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
As the new snow falls straight out of the sky, the in-your-face problem will likely be dry-loose avalanches from the low-density snowfall. However, it may also be possible to trigger shallow soft slabs up to a foot deep. Depending on your terrain selection, I expect these avalanches to be small and not much of a problem.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Across the mid and upper-elevation northerly facing terrain, you will find weaker faceted snow buried in the snowpack. These fragile surgery gains are now buried 1-3’ deep in many locations, and it is possible to trigger an avalanche today that breaks deeper into the snowpack, making a much more dangerous avalanche.
Steep slopes on the north half of the compass that look smooth and free of rocks will be the most suspect slopes. The bad news: These are the slopes that will look the best to ride and, unfortunately, will be the most dangerous. The other bad news is the aspects that don’t hold faceted snow (southerly facing terrain) were mostly bare before this storm and, therefore, will be hardly worth riding.
The best and safest option for riding and turning will be north-facing terrain that isn’t steep enough to avalanche (slopes less than 30° degrees in steepness).
Video: Snowpit observation on a north-facing slope at 9,600’ in elevation.
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