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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Trent Meisenheimer
Issued by Trent Meisenheimer on
Tuesday morning, January 29, 2019
The avalanche danger is MODERATE for triggering a large, deep avalanche in isolated places at the mid & upper elevation west through southeast facing terrain. It's the classic low-probability of triggering a high-consequence avalanche. The danger is also MODERATE for triggering wind drifts at all upper elevations. For today, continue to identify and avoid any of the rounded, smooth or scalloped drifts on steep slopes.
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Special Announcements
The report from Friday's avalanche accident is finished and can be found HERE. Our deepest condolences go out to the family and friends that are effected by this accident.
Weather and Snow
This morning we will see high clouds early in the day that should break up by the afternoon providing some sunshine. Temperatures took a dive overnight with many upper elevation thermometers reading in the teens °F. Northerly winds finally calmed down after yesterday's weak storm system that passed over head. This morning the winds are from the northerly direction and are currently blowing 10-15 mph with gusts into the low 20's at upper elevations. Mid elevations, the winds are calm.
The northerly winds have done their work in the alpine creating sastrugi and wind board in many locations. Mid and low elevation shady terrain that is sheltered from the wind/sun provides soft settled powder. Southerly aspects will be crusted this morning and depending on cloud cover and your location they may or may not soften with day time heating.
Recent Avalanches
No new avalanches were reported from the backcountry. List of all backcountry observations can be found HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Since January 21st we have seen multiple wind events with plenty of new snow to blow around. This has created new and old drifts of wind blown snow at the upper elevations and well down ridges into gullies and sub-ridges. However, these wind drifts and slabs have had time to adjust and gain strength and seem to be welded in place. For today, keep an eye out for new and old drifts of wind blown snow and avoid them. The good news, is these drifts should be easy to identify and easy to avoid. Keep in mind that even a small avalanche in dangerous terrain can be deadly and there remains the isolated chance that some of these drifts remain active.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The Provo area mountains saw a much drier December than it's northerly neighbor in the SLC area mountains. Because it was drier in the Provo area the snowpack grew weaker and more faceted. Since January 6th the Provo mountains received 9.48" of snow water equivalent. This is a giant load to a weak and fragile snowpack.
If you take 20 mins and dig down 3-5' feet deep into the snowpack you can find a mid-pack layer of weak faceted snow and or weak and faceted snow on the ground. In some locations (like shallow areas) it's worse than other locations where the snowpack is much deeper. This layer is a concern because of the large slab of snow that sits on top of a relatively weaker layer of snow (strong over weak).
I would continue to avoid steep slopes on the mid and upper elevations that face west through southeast. You'll need to evaluate snow and terrain carefully, and identify features of concern. Keeping your slope angles under 30° degrees in steepness and avoid being on anything steep above or adjacent to you would be my advice for traveling in the Provo mountains. The avalanche you would trigger would be massive and easily could bury, or kill a person.
General Announcements
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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