Forecast: Provo Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Issued by Dave Kelly on
Tuesday morning, January 17, 2023

The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE at upper elevations where there will be more wind drifting. You can expect to trigger avalanches in the new snow on all aspects. The avalanche danger is MODERATE at mid and lower elevations where there has been less new snow.

With increased snowfall rates throughout morning, I would expect to see natural and human triggered avalanches running on density changes in the new snow.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Weather and Snow

It's snowing at most mountain locations. Overnight, mountain weather stations are reporting 5-8" of low-density snow. Trailhead temperatures are in the high 20's F and the 9,000' temperatures are in the low 20's F. Winds are light blowing from the south and south east at the lower elevations and 20 gusting to 30 MPH at the higher ridgelines.

Today will bring continued snowfall, heavy at times, 2-4" expected. There is a chance of more snow this morning before the winds veer to the north-northwest 15 gusting to 25 MPH at the 9,000' ridgelines and 15 gusting to 30 MPH at the 11,000' ridgelines. Temperatures will be 28-32 F.

Our partners at the National Weather Service have issued a Winter Weather Advisory from now until 5AM Wednesday morning.

Snowfall and total snow depths for the last two weeks

Provo Area Mountains 90' snow ( snow depth 80-115")

Recent Avalanches

Yesterday backcountry travelers reported sensitive wind drifts up to 6" deep and running up to 500'.

Check out the observations from yesterday HERE.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

It just keeps snowing. With today's forecasted new snow falling on last night's low density fluff expect to see loose dry and soft slab avalanches running on density changes today.

Use caution and watch for easily triggered new snow avalanches while ascending and descending steep slopes. Travel one at a time through steep terrain over 30 degrees and think about not IF you'll see a new snow avalanche, but where it might take you if you are swept off your feet.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Very light snow only needs very light winds to transport it around the mountains. At higher elevations soft slabs of wind drifted snow may crack out upon approach or under your skis. These wind drifted snow avalanches may entrain all of last night and today's new snow and on steeper slopes will be more than enough to take a rider off their feet.

Cornices will be sensitive today and may break further back than you anticipate.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

The PWL is deeply buried and it would require a significant trigger (a medium size avalanche, large cornice, or a series of powerful sustained storms with winds) to avalanche. If an avalanche breaks on this layer it would be 6-10' deep and up to 3,000' wide. An avalanche on this PWL would be very hard to trigger and un-survivable if a human was caught in a slide of this size.

You may notice us chipping away at the PWL layer in the avalanche rose. Do we think that humans will trigger an avalanche on this November PWL today? Probably not- but with continued new water weight and wind the PWL layer is still hanging on in the back of our minds.

The Gobbler's avalanche is still recent enough that we can't pull this PWL problem from our radar.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

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