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Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Greg Gagne
Issued by Greg Gagne on
Wednesday morning, December 25, 2024
The avalanche danger is MODERATE on upper-elevation slopes facing northwest through north and east and some mid-elevation slopes where it is possible to trigger an avalanche 1- 2 feet deep, failing in a persistent weak layer of faceted snow. Recently wind-loaded slopes are the most prone to avalanche.

Expect a rising avalanche danger with additional snowfall and wind forecast for the next several days.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
"It was a stern night landscape. The sound of the freezing of the snow over the land seemed to roar deep into the earth. There was no moon. The stars, almost too many of them to be true, came forward so brightly that it was as if they were falling with the swiftness of the void. As the stars came nearer, the sky retreated deeper and deeper into the night colour." -- From "Snow Country" by Yasunari Kawabati

6 am: Temperatures are in the upper 20's F. Winds are from the south and have been sustained over the past 24 hours, averaging in the teens and 20's mph with 30-45 mph gusts along exposed ridgelines at the upper elevations. The winds have diminished overnight and are now averaging less than 10 mph, with gusts in the teens along exposed, upper-elevation ridgelines. 1-3 inches of new snow has fallen overnight.
Today: Temperatures will rise into the upper 20's and low 30's F and winds will shift to the west/northwest this morning, averaging in the teens with gusts in the 20's along exposed ridge lines. We are expecting 1-2 inches of snow during the day.
Extended Forecast: After a break later today, snowfall will return on Thursday, with a long-duration snow event expected through the rest of the year. Weather model runs are inconsistent, but snowfall over 2 feet with 2-3 inches of water is possible by the New Year.
Recent Avalanches
No recent avalanches have been reported from the Ogden-area mountains. To our north, there was an avalanche accident in the Logan area mountains on Tuesday with a complete burial, but fortunately, a quick companion rescue using a transceiver and only minor injuries. The avalanche was 2 feet deep and 500 feet wide. A video from the scene is below.
A list of recent observations and avalanches in the Ogden area mountains can be found here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
There is a widespread persistent weak layer (PWL) of faceted snow on mid and upper-elevation slopes facing northwest through north and east where it is possible to trigger an avalanche 1-2 feet deep. Slopes that have recently been wind-loaded are the most prone to avalanche. I don't think the recent south/southwest winds and today's snowfall are enough of a load to increase the danger substantially, but I also simply don't trust this PWL and I continue to avoid steep, north-facing slopes that have been wind-loaded and have a structure of stronger/denser snow over weaker snow, as shown below from Dave Kelly's field day on Sunday in the Hells Canyon backcountry adjacent to Snowbasin where the thin gray stripe is a layer of weak faceted snow.

The shady, northerly slopes where this PWL exists will become increasingly dangerous with more snow and wind forecast beginning Thursday.
General Announcements
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.