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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Tuesday morning, December 9, 2025
An isolated or MODERATE avalanche danger exists on steep, wind loaded slopes near and above tree line that face N-NE-E. In these areas, human triggered avalanches failing on a persistent weak layer of sugary, faceted snow are possible.
Most other terrain has generally LOW danger and small avalanches on isolated terrain features are possible.
Even though today's avalanches are likely to be shallow and confined to small areas, they could still have serious consequences due to our thin early-season snowpack.
Conditions remain very thin, and rocks, stumps, and logs lurk below the surface everywhere. There still isn't enough snow for real turning and riding. Exercise extreme caution getting around.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements

Geyser Pass Road Conditions: The road has been plowed but the surface is snowpacked and slick. All wheel drive and good tires recommended.

Grooming: The Geyser Pass road above the trailhead will close to vehicles on Dec 15. Grooming will commence after that.

Saturday, December 13 - Moab Winter Kick Off Party at the MARC Bring your skis or board to wax, listen to live music, and bring in another winter season with our local community. Tickets available online now!

Friday, January 30 - Saturday, January 31 - Moab Backcountry 101 Class - Our annual local backcountry avalanche class. Click here for information and registration. Moab and Monticello locals can use the discount code MOAB-LOCAL for a 10% discount.

Weather and Snow

24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 21" Depth at Gold Basin: 15"

Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: NW 20-25 Temp: 23° F

Weather

Another sunny and warm day is on tap. We'll see light to moderate winds blowing from the northwest and high temperatures in the mid 30's. We'll remain under a dry northwest flow through the week with steadily increasing temperatures.

General Conditions

Snowpack doldrums are setting in. Saturday's northwest wind event did a fair amount of damage to exposed terrain. Some of the high peaks were blasted down to the rocks while others managed to hold snow. Wind crusts and sastrugi abound in open areas. Some soft snow remains in sheltered areas but the snowpack remains very thin. Average depths range from one to two feet. For more details, read my observation from Sunday. Chris Benson toured into Gold Basin on Sunday and provided some great photographs of the high country, and Nate Ament ventured up into Horse Creek. Read their observations here. Weak, faceted snow can now be found at the base of the snowpack on all aspects but the most problematic areas remain on north and easterly facing terrain. More on that below.

Wind ravaged terrain in the high country near Manns Peak. For more on my findings see the video below.

Snowpack and Weather Data

NEW! Gold Basin webcam storm stake

Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')

Recent Avalanches
No recent avalanches have been observed. Click here for the complete avalanche database.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

We're moving toward a classic La Sal set up with a persistent weak layer of sugary, faceted snow at the base of the snowpack. All of the snow that fell between Nov 16-19 has begun to facet and weak snow can be found on all aspects. On southerly aspects including SE , a stout melt freeze crust exists above the faceted snow and the weight of a skier or rider is unlikely to affect it. And although the odds are decreasing, it still remains possible to trigger an avalanche on slopes facing N-NE-E, and to a lesser extent, slopes that face NW. In these areas, the Nov 30 snow has formed a cohesive slab on top of the faceted layer and stability tests remain reactive in some areas. Avalanches triggered would likely be small, but they could take you for a rough ride in the low snow conditions.

The photo below illustrates the results of an extended column test I performed on an east aspect near tree line at 11,400'. The score was ECTP12 on top of the faceted layer just beneath a thin melt freeze crust.

Additional Information

It's never too early to start thinking about avalanches. Here are a few things to consider doing:

  • Learn online. We have over 5 hours of free online learning at the Know Before You Go website
  • Check out the upcoming in-person Know Before You Go events HERE
  • Sign up for an on-snow class
  • Check out the UAC's education progression HERE
  • Get your avalanche rescue gear ready for winter. Put fresh batteries in your transceiver and update the firmware. Inspect your shovel and probe. Get your airbag backpack ready by possibly doing a test deployment and updating the firmware if it is an electric version or getting your canister refilled if it's not electronic.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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