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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Tuesday morning, January 6, 2026

The avalanche danger is MODERATE on steep slopes near and above tree line that face NW-N-NE-E. The problems are two fold and human triggered avalanches involving both wind drifted snow, and avalanches stepping down into buried persistent weak layers are possible. You are most likely to encounter unstable slabs of wind drifted snow on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features above tree line.

Deeper and more dangerous avalanches involving a persistent weak layer are possible on these same aspects near tree line and above. The only way to avoid this problem is to avoid slopes steeper than 30 degrees in these areas.

Conditions remain very thin, and hazards such as rocks and logs have just been thinly covered.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements

Geyser Pass Road Conditions: Many folks have made it up over the past couple of days and the recent snow has been packed down. It is slick, however, with sections of ice and mud down low and packed snow up high. The parking lot remains a good place to get stuck. 4x4 required.

Grooming: Grooming will again commence this week.

Friday, January 30 - Saturday, January 31 - Moab Backcountry 101 Class - Our annual local backcountry avalanche class. Click here for information and registration. Moab and Monticello locals can use the discount code MOAB-LOCAL for a 10% discount.

Weather and Snow

24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 32" Depth at Gold Basin: 20"

Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: S 5-10 Temp: 14° F

Weather

A brief ridge of high pressure slides over the region today bringing mostly sunny skies, light to moderate southwest winds, and high temperatures near 30°F at 10,000 feet. By Wednesday, clouds will again move in ahead of a shortwave trough that will slide northwest across Baja and into the desert Southwest. At the same time, a long wave trough will dive down out of the Pacific Northwest. Cold northwest flow will usher in more winter like temperatures. Models are back on board with some snow for our area. It's an interesting setup, we'll se what happens. A notably dry period follows as a strong ridge of high pressure builds over the region.

General Conditions

Storm snow from last weekend has settled significantly over the past couple of days and conditions aren't quite as good as they were but good turns are still being found on sheltered terrain. On shady slopes, snow depths range from about 20 inches at 10,000 feet to up to 3 feet or more at upper elevations. Southwest winds have begun to scour exposed windward slopes while alternately loading leeward aspects, primarily slopes facing N and E. Snowpack structure remains poor with plenty of weak, faceted snow beneath the Christmas rain crust. Ryan Huels and Chris and Morgan Orozco both sent in observations from yesterday. In addition to finding some good skiing, the Orozcos had a reactive stability test, confirming our suspicions about the poor snowpack structure. More on that below.

Snowpack and Weather Data

Recent Avalanches
No recent activity has been observed. Click here for the complete avalanche database.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Poor snowpack structure exists on all slopes facing the north half of the compass. In these areas the entire snowpack is loose, weak, and faceted beneath the Christmas rain crust. Red flags such as collapsing and whumphing are not widespread but they are occurring. In spite of the poor structure, we've had surprisingly non-reactive test results. Yesterday, however, Chris and Morgan Orozco produced a score of ECTP7 in an extended column test on NE aspect with failure on facets right below the crust. This is a clear indication that you can trigger an avalanche. Read their complete observation here.

The likelihood of triggering an avalanche largely depends on the strength and thickness of the rain crust in various locations. If you are into splitting hairs, the most likely areas to find trouble are right around tree line, in places where the rain crust is very thin. Personally, I'm just not willing to trust the strength of the crust with my life and I'll be avoiding northerly aspects steeper than 30 degrees for awhile.

Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Avalanches involving wind drifted snow remain possible today. You are most likely to encounter this problem on steep slopes above tree line that face NW-N-NE-E. Look for fresh deposits of wind drifted snow on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features. Wind drifted areas often have a smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability.
Additional Information
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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