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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, March 6, 2022
HEADS UP, DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED!
The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE and human triggered avalanches 2'-3' deep are likely on all steep slopes facing NW-N-NE-E. In these areas, new and wind drifted snow has dangerously overloaded a buried persistent weak layer and all steep, northerly facing terrain should be avoided. This weak layer can also be found on slopes facing W and SE but sun and warm temperature this past week have made avalanches on this weak layer less likely and a MODERATE avalanche danger exists on these slopes.
All other steep terrain has a MODERATE avalanche danger, and soft slab human triggered avalanches involving the new snow are possible. Backcountry travelers need to have excellent route finding and snow stability analysis skills out there today.
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Special Announcements
Road Conditions: The road is not plowed and up to a foot of snow has fallen on it since Friday night. It was well traveled yesterday but 4x4 and good tires are required.
Grooming: Trails have not been groomed since the recent snow.
Weather and Snow
6:00 a.m. weather data:
24 Hour Snow 6" 72 Hour Snow 16" Base Depth at Gold Basin 62" Wind SW 5-10 Temp 10F
The mountains picked up another 6" last night with most of it falling between 6:00-9:00 p.m. This brings totals since Friday night up to 16" at 1.6" Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) at the Gold Basin study plot. SW winds during the snowy period blew in the 15-25 mph range with gusts in the 30's before backing off. They've been quite calm since midnight only blowing in the single digits. Today, look for mostly cloudy skies with a slight chance for snow, light westerly winds, and high temps in the upper teens. A final shortwave will bring another chance of snow on Monday with dry and sunny conditions on Tuesday. Another system on Wed looks like it will affect areas primarily to the north.
NWS Weather Forecast for the La Sal Mountains
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
Storm Totals in Gold Basin
Wind Station on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Snowpack
A fresh load of new and wind drifted snow has been added to our weak snowpack once again stressing the buried persistent weak layer of loose, sugary facets that formed during the extended dry period. Dangerous conditions exist with human triggered avalanches 2'-3' deep likely on steep, northerly facing slopes. The weakest underlying snow can be found near treeline and below. Above treeline, the distribution of the weak layer is much more variable however, new and wind drifted snow have created their own problems up there, and the bottom line is that all steep, northerly facing terrain should be avoided.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
12"-16" of new snow at 1.6" SWE has been added to our buried persistent weak layer and conditions are once again dangerous. This buried weak layer of loose, sugary faceted snow is present on W-N-SE aspects and is now buried by 2' -3' of snow. Sun and warm temps this week have tempered it somewhat on slopes that have seen more sun, but it's still well preserved on shady slopes near treeline and below. Above treeline it's distribution is much more variable but this is not a game worth playing right now, and all steep, northerly facing slopes should be considered dangerous with human triggered avalanches 2'-3' deep likely.
This video was taken on Saturday, March 5, an additional 6" of snow has fallen since then.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Unstable, fresh deposits of wind drifted snow will be found along the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features, primarily on slopes facing NW-N-NE-E. Fresh drifts will add more stress to the buried persistent weak layer and the bottom line travel advice remains the same - all steep, northerly facing slopes should be avoided.
Avalanche Problem #3
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Soft slab avalanches within the new snow will be possible on steep slopes on all aspects today. South facing slopes have less snow on them because of prevailing winds but any steep slope with more than about 8" of snow should be considered suspect. Utilize smaller tests slopes and see how the snow is behaving and look for signs of instability such as cracking in the snow surface.
General Announcements
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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