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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Monday morning, March 22, 2021
Though the odds are lessening each day, it is still possible to trigger a deep and dangerous avalanche on a buried persistent weak layer near and above treeline on steep slopes that face NW-N-E-SE and a MODERATE avalanche danger exists in these areas. Thinner snowpack areas and slopes made up of steep, rocky terrain are the most likely trigger points. Some isolated, unstable wind drifts may also exist in these same areas. Suspect slopes that have a smooth rounded appearance or that sound or feel hollow underneath. Most other terrain has generally LOW danger.
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The Geyser Pass Road has been plowed and is down to the dirt in most areas. Patches of ice and snow exist and it turns muddy as the day heats up. All-wheel-drive recommended.
The Lower Utah Nordic Alliance (LUNA) groomed into Gold Basin on Friday.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 2" Base Depth in Gold Basin 63" Wind NE 10-15 G23 Temp 15F
Look for mostly sunny skies with light to moderate NE winds becoming northwesterly by afternoon. High temps at 10,000' will be near 30F. A series of troughs will keep us under a cool and unsettled weather pattern for most of the week with the next one arriving tomorrow morning. Snow showers should develop sometime around noon with 2"-4" possible. This system moves on by Wed with the next one moving into the Great Basin on Thursday and eventually reaching our area sometime on Friday.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Storm totals at the Gold Basin study plot (10,000')
Snowpack Discussion
Reports from yesterday were of dust on crust conditions with a spongy layer of graupel in some areas. Time and warm temperatures have helped the snowpack adjust to the large snow load we received last weekend but it's still possible to trigger a deep and dangerous avalanche on a buried persistent weak layer of sugary, faceted snow near the ground. This weak layer exists on slopes that face NW-N-E-SE, and thin snowpack areas consisting of steep, rocky terrain are the most likely trigger points.
Recent Avalanches
It's now been a week since the last avalanche cycle. Getting out and about we've observed numerous slides that ran on northerly aspects near and above treeline that failed on a buried persistent weak layer of sugary, faceted snow near the ground. Most of these avalanches occurred in rocky, shallower snowpack areas or in repeat running slide paths. The likelihood of triggering one of these slides is lessening with each day but it still remains possible.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Most of the avalanches from the last cycle stepped down to a layer of weak, faceted snow near the ground, and human triggered avalanches such as this remain possible on similar slopes that have not avalanched. The greatest concern is on wind loaded slopes that face NW-N-E-SE near and above treeline. Thinner snowpack areas along slope margins or near rock outcroppings are likely trigger points. Wind loaded slopes should be avoided as should areas of rocky, more radical terrain. Bottom line is that we need a little more time for things to adjust before we strike out into larger terrain. Reduce your exposure by keeping your slope angles below 35 degrees.
The following video of a propagation saw test on a NE aspect at 11,200' illustrates the kind of avalanche problem we are dealing with.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
There may be some fresh drifts or isolated, old, hard wind slabs hanging around in the high country. Be on the lookout for fresh drifts and suspect smooth rounded areas that sound or feel hollow underneath. You may find them on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as gully walls and sub-ridges.
Additional Information
It's amazing what last weekend's storm did for our snowpack which has skyrocketed to 92% of normal. Better late than never.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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