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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, March 22, 2020
New and wind drifted snow have dangerously overloaded a weak snowpack, and the avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on steep, wind drifted slopes facing NW-N-E. Human triggered avalanches 2' - 4' deep are likely in these areas. If the sun comes out today look for a rising MODERATE danger for loose, wet avalanches on sun-exposed slopes. Be on the lookout for signs of instability such as rollerballs and pinwheels and stay off of, and out from under steep slopes if they become wet and sloppy.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
We know there is a lot of uncertainty regarding the Coronavirus, but the Utah Avalanche Center is planning to continue issuing regular avalanche forecasts into April.
Road Conditions: Plowing on Thursday was minimal and the road is narrow and the parking lot is a mess.
Grooming: Trails have not been groomed.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow T" Weekly Snow 19" Base Depth in Gold Basin 70" Wind W 10-15 mph Temp 22F
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast
Weather: A passing short wave is producing clouds and a chance for showers this morning. Clouds should dissipate as the day progresses becoming partly to mostly sunny by afternoon. Westerly winds should be mostly light and high temps will be in the low to mid 30's. The next system will move into the region tomorrow with snow likely in the afternoon. It doesn't look like a big producer with 2"-4" possible. Of note, however, will be an increase in SW winds. Tuesday and Wednesday look dry with the next system forecasted for Thursday.
Snowpack: Recent and wind drifted snow has piled up on a fragile snowpack that is comprised largely of weak, sugary, faceted snow. Weak snow can be found on all aspects but the greatest danger exists on steep, wind loaded slopes that face the north half of the compass where the underlying snowpack is exceedingly weak. Dave Garcia and company were out yesterday. Read their report here. They reported good powder conditions but with continued wind loading on to northerly aspects. Clouds and cool temps kept a lid on daytime heating yesterday, but expect the snow to become damp today as the sun makes it's first real appearance.
Brett Sutteer sent in this photo he snapped during a brief period of clearing on Friday. This ominous looking, wind loaded slope is definitely the kind of terrain you want to continue to avoid.
Recent Avalanches
I have not received any more information on a reported partial burial on Friday.
Dave Garcia reported seeing only loose snow sluffing in the most recent snow.
Casey Bateman reported a natural avalanche in Exxon's Folley. Though visibility was poor, he said it was large, with a fracture up to 2' deep, possibly stepping down into old, weak, faceted snow. Read his report here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Recent and wind drifted snow have begun to dangerously overload the layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow that comprises much of the snowpack. You are most likely to trigger an avalanche involving these persistent weak layers on steep, wind loaded, northerly facing slopes right around treeline, or in shallower, rocky areas in the alpine.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Southerly winds have blown and drifted snow on to northerly aspects right around treeline and above. Look for fresh drifts on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. Fresh drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability. In these same areas, a triggered wind slab could step down into a buried persistent weak layer causing a deeper and more dangerous avalanche. Avoid steep, wind loaded slopes today.
Avalanche Problem #3
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Dry snow is most susceptible to the effects of sun and warm temperatures the first time that it becomes exposed. If the sun makes its appearance today the danger for loose wet avalanches will rise on sun-exposed slopes. As the surface becomes damp, be on the lookout for signs of instability such as rollerballs, pinwheels, and loose, wet sluffs, and stay off of and out from under steep slopes if they become wet and sloppy.
General Announcements
Check out the avalanche beacon training park at the Geyser Pass Trailhead and practice your rescue skills!
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.