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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Dave Garcia
Issued by Dave Garcia on
Thursday morning, March 20, 2025
The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on steep wind-drifted slopes above treeline that face W-N-SE. Skiers and riders are LIKELY to trigger avalanches in recent drifts up to two feet deep. Fresh slabs of wind-drifted snow also exist near treeline on slopes that face W-N-SE where the danger is MODERATE.
Buried weak layers of faceted snow continue to plague our snowpack on slopes that face W-N-E near treeline and above, and below treeline northerlies. On these slopes, the avalanche danger is MODERATE, and human-triggered avalanches breaking three feet deep or more are POSSIBLE. Any avalanche failing on facets would break deep, run wide and far, and is potentially deadly.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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They will be working on the Loop Road today and it will be closed from 8:30-5:30 on the south end. Access to Geyser is from Castle Valley.
Geyser Pass Road: The road is not plowed and deep ruts exist with a foot of snow. High clearance and 4x4 are recommended.
Grooming Conditions: Trails are not groomed.
Weather and Snow
6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 12" Season Total Snow: 121" Depth at Gold Basin: 54"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: N/A Temp: 15° F Percent of Normal (SWE): 119%
Weather
Pre Laurel Peak wind station and the Gold Basin storm stake are down as we install upgrades including a web cam to the site.
Under cloudy skies, it is 15° F in Gold Basin this morning. Overnight winds were light out of the northwest before shifting to the southwest. Expect gradual clearing today with mostly sunny conditions by this afternoon. Highs at 10,000' will reach 28° F. Winds will blow out of the southwest around 15 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH. Tomorrow will be sunny, and the wind should ease off just a bit. A storm on Saturday will bring snow to the northern mountains, and cloudy windy conditions for southeast Utah. Sunday sees the start of a warming trend. The long term shows sunny skies and temperatures climbing above normal for this time of year.
General Conditions
Yesterday was an all-time day for skiing in the La Sals with blue skies and fresh powder. Tuesday's storm dropped a foot of snow at 1.2" SWE. The skiing and riding was excellent on all aspects. Solar aspects took on some heat from the strong March sunshine, and will most likely be crusted over today. Shady slopes continue to hold great powder. Strong winds associated with the storm created widespread slabs of wind-drifted snow near treeline and above. Recent drifts remain a serious concern today. Look for and avoid any steep slopes that have recent deposits of wind-drifted snow. Buried persistent weak layers are stressed once again by the recent loading event. Things were not super sensitive yesterday, but deep human-triggered avalanches failing on facets remain a real possibility. The consequences would most likely be deadly.
Several great observations came in from yesterday, be sure and check them out here.
Visiting UAC staff member Claire Hurty samples some La Sal powder.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
My party observed a couple of small slabs of wind-drifted snow that ran naturally in Talking Mountain Cirque. Chis Benson reported this large avalanche in Upper Beaver Basin. (Photo Below)
This NE facing path avalanched to the ground earlier this season, and the snowpack remained shallow and weak in this zone. It appears to have ripped to the ground once again.
See the complete avalanche database here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The recent storm began with strong southwest winds which shifted to the northwest later in the day and continued to blow Tuesday night. Slabs of wind-drifted snow up to two feet deep are widespread on slopes that face W-N-SE. Many slopes in the alpine have a fat and pillowy looking appearance and should be avoided. Recent drifts will be slightly more stubborn today, allowing a rider to get a little further out onto them before they break. Any wind slab avalanche has the potential to step down to deeply buried persistent weak layers, causing very deep and dangerous avalanches.
Wind-drifted snow is stiffer and more compact than non-drifted snow. Wind slabs sound hollow and drum-like when you step on them. Cracking and collapsing is a sure sign of instability.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
March has been a great month for skiing with over three feet of snow and more than three inches of snow water equivalent (SWE). It is important to realize all of the recent snow has piled up on a snowpack that has remained shallow and weak all season. A thick, cohesive, and well connected slab exists above this weak structure. Each additional load pushes buried weak layers closer to their breaking point. Weak layers are stressed once again by the most recent load, and skiers and riders can trigger deep and dangerous slab avalanches. The most dangerous slopes are steep northerly aspects, especially those that have been recently wind loaded.
Likely trigger points are steep convexities, shallow rocky areas, and thin slab margins. Think about the terrain you are in and what would happen if it slides. You can increase your margin of safety by not skiing above cliff bands or terrain traps, and choosing smooth, planar slopes.
Additional Information
Check out the latest UAC podcast with forecaster Brett "Kowboy" Kobernick where he discusses faceted persistent weak layers and how "nobody is immune from getting killed in an avalanche."
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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