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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Monday morning, March 1, 2021
The avalanche danger remains a solid MODERATE with recent deposits of wind drifted snow bumping things up a notch on all aspects above treeline. The primary concern however remains the very real possibility of triggering deep and dangerous avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer. You are most likely to trigger one of these avalanches on steep terrain that faces NW through SE. The danger increases with elevation where wind drifted snow has added stress to buried persistent weak layers. Thinner snowpack areas near rock outcroppings, sparse trees, or along slope margins are the most likely areas to trigger an avalanche.
Most S-W facing terrain near treeline and below has generally LOW danger though as the day heats up you'll want to be alert to signs of loose, wet instability such as rollerballs or pinwheels. Stay off of, and out from under steep slopes when these signs are present.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
The Geyser Pass Road is plowed but the surface is snow-packed, icy, and slick. All-wheel drive with good tires is recommended.
The Lower Utah Nordic Alliance (LUNA) groomed and set classic track into Gold Basin yesterday.
Avalanche Forecasters Toby Weed and Paige Pagnucco investigated a recent avalanche fatality in Idaho just north of the Utah border.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 4" Base Depth in Gold Basin 49" Wind N 10-15 Temp 12F
It's going to be a beautiful day in the mountains. Breezy northerly winds that have blown for the past couple of days began to back off a little after midnight. They'll continue to decrease becoming mostly calm by mid-day. High temps at 10,000' will be near 30 degrees. High pressure will dominate the next few days with clear skies, mostly calm winds, and warming temps. On Thursday, an upper-level low will move through the 4 Corners and it's looking like it could give us a shot of snow. High-pressure returns for the extended period with a continued glimmer of hope for a change around mid-month.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Storm totals at the Gold Basin study plot (10,000')
Snowpack Discussion
Conditions were surprisingly good yesterday with about 4" of new, low-density snow that rode like 8" where it was blown in. Get it today before the sun does! Northerly ridgetop winds over the past couple of days have easily transported this light snow, and fresh, potentially unstable drifts have formed on all aspects, primarily at upper elevations. On slopes facing NW-N-SE a slab 1'-3' thick exists on top of buried, weak, facets. These slabs are becoming harder to trigger but once released they would produce deep and dangerous avalanches. Likely trigger points include shallower areas along slope margins, around sparse trees or rock outcroppings, or on repeat running slide paths. It's a gamble out there right now, and it's not a chance any of the forecasters or observers I know are willing to take. Keep your slope angles to 30 degrees or less to keep it safe.
Recent Avalanches
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Poor snowpack structure still exists with buried persistent weak layers of loose, sugary, faceted snow on most aspects. The most dangerous areas are on slopes above treeline that face NW-N-SE where wind drifted snow has created slabs 1'-3' deep on top of these buried weak layers. Once triggered, these slab avalanches would be large and unsurvivable. The snowpit below submited by Chris Benson illustrates the problem. Picture building blocks stacked on top of one another with varying strengths and thicknesses, and note the very precarious situation between 10-20 cms. This is the layer of weak, sugary snow that the rest of the snowpack is sitting on.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Northerly ridgetop winds over the past couple of days have easily transported the recent, low-density snow, and fresh, potentially unstable drifts have formed on all aspects, primarily in upper elevation wind exposed terrain. Look for fresh drifts on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features like sub-ridges and gully walls. On steep, northerly aspects, wind drifted snow has added addtional stress to buried persistent weak layers so it isn't merely a question of identifying and testing for wind slab instability. The bottom line is that steep, wind loaded, northerly-facing terrain remains very much a gamble, and deep and dangerous, human-triggered avalanches remain possible in these areas.
Avalanche Problem #3
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
We will likely seem some shallow, loose wet activity today as the sun heats up the recent cold snow. This will likely come in the form of some roller balls, pinwheels, or even a few loose snow sluffs. By and large these shouldn't prove to be dangerous but it's good practice to be alert to the aforementioned signs of wet instability and to stay off of and out from under steep slopes when these signs are present.
Additional Information
Here is last week's weather data compiled by Chris Benson.
And here are some snowpack data from the Colorado River Basin Forecast Center. We are currently at 71% of normal.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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