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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, February 28, 2021
The avalanche danger remains a solid MODERATE with recent snow and wind bumping things up a notch. The primary concern however remains the very real possibility of triggering deep and dangerous avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer. You are most likely to trigger one of these avalanches on steep terrain facing NW-N-SE. The danger increases with elevation where wind drifted snow has added stress to buried persistent weak layers. Thinner snowpack areas near rock outcroppings, sparse trees, or along slope margins are the most likely areas to trigger an avalanche. Most S-SW facing terrain near treeline and below has LOW danger.
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Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
The Geyser Pass Road is plowed but the surface is snow-packed, icy, and slick. All-wheel drive with good tires is recommended.
The Lower Utah Nordic Alliance (LUNA) groomed and set classic track into Gold Basin Friday but a few inches of snow has fallen since.
Avalanche Forecasters Toby Weed and Paige Pagnucco investigated a recent avalanche fatality in Idaho just north of the Utah border.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 3" Base Depth in Gold Basin 50" Wind NE 15-20 G33 Temp 4F
Under clear skies, mountain temps are in the single digits to below zero and a cold NE wind is blowing. High temps today will creep up into the teens with continued breezy NE winds averaging 10-15 mph with gusts into the 20's along ridge tops. Conditions look to remain dry and clear through mid-week with models coming into a closer agreement over a low-pressure system moving through the 4 Corners on Thursday that may bring us a chance for a few inches of snow. A significant change is still being advertised for around the 11th.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Storm totals at the Gold Basin study plot (10,000')
Snowpack Discussion
A few inches of new snow yesterday provided a bit of a refresh to the snow surface and winds have formed fresh, shallow drifts at upper elevations. Warmer temperatures and time have helped consolidate the snowpack, but weak layers of sugary, faceted snow still exist on most aspects. Outward signs of instability are far and few between but localized collapsing can still be felt in areas where the snowpack is thin and weak. On slopes facing NW-N-SE a slab 1'-3' thick exists on top of buried, weak, facets. These slabs are becoming harder to trigger but once released they would produce deep and dangerous avalanches. Likely trigger points include shallower areas along slope margins, around sparse trees or rock outcroppings, or on repeat running slide paths. It's a gamble out there right now, and it's not a chance any of the forecasters or observers I know are willing to take.
Chris Benson sums up conditions in the video below:
Recent Avalanches
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Poor snowpack structure still exists with buried persistent weak layers of loose, sugary, faceted snow on most aspects. The most dangerous areas are on slopes above treeline that face NW-NE-SE where wind drifted snow has created slabs 1'-3' deep on top of these buried weak layers. Once triggered, these slab avalanches would be large and unsurvivable. The snowpit below submited by Chris Benson illustrates the problem. Picture building blocks stacked on top of one another with varying strengths and thicknesses, and note the very precarious situation between 10-20 cms. This is the layer of weak, sugary snow that the rest of the snowpack is sitting on.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Unstable areas of wind drifted snow may exist on all aspects at upper elevations. They'll be a bit stiffer today and may sound or feel hollow like a drum. Look for them on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. Generally speaking, wind slabs themselves shouldn't pose too much of a threat, but if they are located on slopes facing NW-NE-SE, they are just compounding an already underlying persistent weak layer problem and you may want to question why you are there in the first place.
Additional Information
Here is last week's weather data compiled by Chris Benson.
And here are some snowpack data from the Colorado River Basin Forecast Center. We are currently at 71% of normal.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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