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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Saturday morning, February 4, 2017

The avalanche danger is generally LOW in the La Sal Mountains, and overall we have a mostly stable snowpack. But isolated areas of MODERATE danger still exist on steep slopes that face NW-E-SE right around tree line and above where stiff, shallow wind slabs can be found on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as gully walls or rock buttresses. There also remains an isolated danger for triggering a deeper, persistent slab in these same areas.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow

It's been almost two weeks since our last significant snowfall and the snow surface is tired and worn. In our travels up Laurel Ridge and down through Gold Basin on Thursday, we found a variety of snow surfaces from wind blasted, to sun crusted, with spotty areas of soft, settled powder in sheltered mid and lower elevations. Southerly ridge top winds have been cranking in the 20 - 30 mph range over the past few days with gusts into the 40's. They are currently averaging 20 mph from the southwest. It's 20 degrees on Pre Laurel Peak and 29 at the Geyser Pass Trailhead.

Base depth in Gold Basin: 67" Season total snowfall: 160" Percentage of normal: 170%

Wind, temperature and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak. (11,700')

Storm totals and temperature in Gold Basin. (10,000')

Snow totals, temperature and snow/water equivalent at the Geyser Pass Trailhead. (9600')

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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

There isn't much loose snow left available for transport, but southerly winds have been patiently eroding the snow surface and depositing snow on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features. As a result, you are likely to find a few wind slabs lurking about in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. Perched atop a layer of near surface facets, these mostly shallow wind slabs shouldn't pose much of a problem, but they could sweep you off your feet and carry you over a cliff in areas of more extreme terrain. Look for signs of cracking in the snow surface, and suspect smooth, hollow feeling areas of wind deposited snow. You are most likely to find them on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as gully walls, sub-ridges and rock buttresses.

Cracking in the snow surface is a sure sign of wind slab. On Thursday, we found shallow slabs like this on a NE aspect right around tree line.

Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Snowpits reveal a generally strong snowpack, but isolated slopes still display weak layers of faceted snow. If you find yourself pushing into steeper, more extreme terrain, take the time to dig down in the snow and look for the presence of weak layers. Perform a stability test or two before giving yourself the green light.

Additional Information

A storm system moving through to the north will leave us with a few clouds and breezy conditions today. Dry conditions are on tap through the weekend with a more progressive pattern setting up for next week. We'll see a chance for snow by late Monday as the next disturbance moves into the area.

Today

Partly sunny, with a high near 29. South southwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. South southwest wind around 15 mph.

Sunday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 31. Southwest wind around 15 mph.

Sunday Night

A 20 percent chance of snow showers after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.

Monday

A 50 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29. Breezy, with a southwest wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph.

Monday Night

A 40 percent chance of snow showers. Widespread blowing snow after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Breezy.

Tuesday

A 40 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29. Breezy.

General Announcements


Road conditions: Thanks to plow crews from the Manti-La Sal National Forest for getting up there on Tuesday and widening the road.

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The information in this advisory is from the US Forest Service which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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