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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Tuesday, February 28, 2023
A MODERATE danger exists for human triggered avalanches involving slabs of wind drifted snow on slopes facing W-N-SE. The danger is most widespread on steep, northerly aspects where slabs 2'-4' deep may be resting on buried weak layers. Deep and dangerous, human triggered avalanches are possible in these areas.
Out of the wind zone, most terrain on the south side of the compass has generally LOW danger.
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Special Announcements
Geyser Pass Road: Expect to find areas of drifted snow over a snowpacked surface. AWD and good tires recommended.
Grooming: Trails were last groomed on Saturday.
Weather and Snow
6:00 a.m. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow ?" 72 Hour Snow ?" Season Total Snow 219" Base Depth at Gold Basin 80"
Winds on Pre Laurel Peak S 25-35 G50 Temp 16F
Weather
A series of short wave troughs fed by moist southwest flow will affect the region into Thursday. Unfortunately, wind seems to be the driving factor for the La Sals with snowfall amounts looking a little uncertain. Today, look for cloudy and windy conditions with 2"-4" of snow possible by the end of the day. SW winds will blow in the 25-35 mph range with gusts as high as 60. Snow should continue tonight with the highest likelihood for heavy snow coming on Wednesday. 12"-18" seem likely when it's all said and done by Thursday.
General Conditions
As much as I'd like to believe the 10" being reported by the Gold Basin storm stake, there isn't any other supporting data and I can only attribute it to blowing and drifting. My travels yesterday were in lower elevations but there was no indication that we were getting that kind of snowfall. Wind affect is the nature of the snow surface out there with breakable sun crusts on solar aspects. Soft snow can still be found in sheltered areas. Unstable slabs of wind drifted snow remain your primary avalanche concern.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
No new avalanches have been reported. See the La Sal Avalanche database here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Relentless SW winds have drifted snow into thick, cohesive slabs on northerly aspects. Snow and wind over the next couple of days will continue this process. In some areas, slabs are resting on weaker layers in the snowpack and human triggered avalanches 2'-4' deep are possible.
Winds have mostly blasted south and westerly facing slopes, but isolated drifts may exist on the leeward sides of terrain features such as sub ridges, gully walls, and rock outcrops.Wind drifts are often recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance, and they may sound hollow underneath. Cracking is a sign of instability. Avoid wind drifted slopes steeper than 30 degrees.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
On some northerly aspects, wind drifted snow is sitting on top of buried weak layers. A layer of weak faceted snow formed on the surface early this month and it was covered by a foot of snow on Valentines day. It isn't widespread, and it hasn't proven to be very reactive in stability tests, but it's out there. On Saturday, I also observed a weak interface at the bottom of last week's storm snow. The few avalanches we observed Saturday likely failed on one of these weak layers. The bottom line is that with so much uncertainty, copious amounts of drifted snow, and more in the forecast, steep, northerly facing slopes are best avoided at this time.
Photo illustrates layers of concern.
Additional Information
Are you wondering how cell phones and other electronic devices can interfere with your avalanche transceiver? The "20/50 Rule" is that you want your beacon 20cm (8") away from other electronics while transmitting and 50cm (20") away from electronics while searching. Get the full scoop here.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This forecast will be updated by 7:30 tomorrow morning.
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