Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, February 2, 2025
The overall danger is LOW and generally safe avalanche conditions exist. Human-triggered avalanches are unlikely, but small avalanches remain possible in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Steep northerly facing slopes carry the highest risk.
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High
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Special Announcements
Check out the latest edition of the UAC podcast with Moab forecaster Dave Garcia where he talks about the challenges of forecasting for our remote and isolated range with limited information.
Urgent battery replacement required for anyone who received batteries from one of our participating "Batteries for Beacons" shops. Please review the "Batteries for Beacons" replacement notice on our blog. Batteries distributed through our "Batteries for Beacons" program this year have shown to be inadequate length.
Geyser Pass Road: Surface is mainly snowpacked and icy above and bare dirt down low. AWD with good tires recommended.
Grooming Conditions: Trails have not been groomed since Wednesday.
A huge shout out to this great crew who turned out to improve their avalanche awareness and rescue skills at our Backcountry 101 course!
Weather and Snow
6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 63" Depth at Gold Basin: 28"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: SW 20-25 G 32 Temp: 36° F Percent of Normal (SWE): 72%
Weather
Southwest winds continue to batter the peaks and temperatures are above freezing this morning at 10,000'. Today should be mostly sunny and very warm with high temperatures soaring up into the mid to upper 40's. Southwest winds will continue to blow in the moderate to strong range. Tomorrow will be even warmer and it's starting to look like winter has been canceled as unseasonably warm temperatures continue through the week. Long range models continue to look grim and as the hoped for storm later in the week has shifted to a track further north.
General Conditions
It's no secret that our snowpack is thin, variable, and very weak in many areas. Southerly winds and warm temperatures are hammering south facing slopes and there is little to no snow on many of them. Northerly facing slopes above treeline are only in slightly better shape. On shady aspects below treeline, the entire snowpack consists of weak, sugary, faceted snow. Looking ahead, this weak snow will make an unstable base for future snow loads but I'm beginning to doubt they will ever come. It's still low tide out there and the weakening snowpack makes hitting buried obstacles more likely so be careful.
South facing slopes are going fast (photo above), while northerly aspects above treeline are faring only slightly better (photo below).
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
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Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
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Description
The avalanche danger is low and conditions are generally stable. Here are a few things to keep in mind as you travel through the backcountry today.
  • Persistent Weak Layer - Our snowpack is generally weak and faceted in many areas. This is different than your typical late-season low danger. If you are getting into big lines and steep terrain, it is always wise to evaluate the snowpack first. Look for slabs over weak layers. Reduce your risk by avoiding likely trigger points like shallow rocky areas, steep convexities, and thin slab margins.
  • Wind Drifted Snow - The La Sals are a high, islolated, wind swept mountain range and snow is often transported and then deposited as slabs of wind drifted snow. The current threat is isolated to specific terrain features and avalanches will be small, but they could sweep you off your feet and carry you over a cliff in the wrong location. Remain cautious of smooth, rounded, hollow feeling, areas, especially when in consequential terrain.
  • Loose Dry Avalanches - Below treeline on northerly aspects, the snowpack is entirely loose and faceted. You can trigger small dry-loose avalanches in very steep terrain. These slides would not be large enough to bury you, but they could sweep you off your feet and carry you into a tree or over a cliff.
Additional Information
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.