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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Saturday morning, December 7, 2024
A MODERATE avalanche danger exists on steep slopes near and above treeline that face NW-N-E and human-triggered avalanches failing on a persistent weak layer remain POSSIBLE. Though far less likely, problems may still exist on upper elevation W and SE aspects. Data is sparse from these areas.
The avalanche danger is mostly LOW on all other aspects. Small avalanches on isolated terrain features are possible.

Conditions remain thin and rocks, stumps, and dead fall still pose a significant hazard.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
We have some events coming up to kick off the winter season:
Saturday, December 7 - 17th Annual Utah Snow and Avalanche Workshop (USAW) - Information and tickets available here.
Saturday, December 14 - 3rd Annual UAC Moab/LUNA Winter Kickoff Party, 6 PM at the MARC. Information and tickets available here.
Geyser Pass Road: The La Sal Loop Road will be closed above Pack Creek Monday-Friday from 8:30 to 5:30 for construction through December 18. Access to the Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead will be from Castle Valley or Sand Flats Road during these hours. Click here for more information.
The grooming equipment has arrived at the Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead! Grooming will commence after December 15 when the road above the trailhead is officially closed to wheeled vehicles.
Weather and Snow
6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 44" Depth at Gold Basin: 24"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: N 5 mph Temp: 21° F Percent of Normal (SWE): 192%
Weather
More of the same. On Monday, a weak, moisture starved system will bring clouds, cooler temperatures, and maybe a flake or two of snow. After that, the long range looks grim.
General Conditions
December thaw? It's been very warm in the mountains the last few days with high temperatures in the mid to upper 30's at 10,000'. South facing slopes are crusted over or melting off. The snow surface on shady aspects remains loose and dry, and it's growing weaker by the day as it recrystallizes into near surface facets. There's also a fair bit of surface hoar about. These surfaces will undoubtedly become future weak layers. The good news is it's becoming increasingly less likely that you will trigger an avalanche.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Poor snowpack structure remains with a dense, cohesive slab over top of weak, faceted snow, but time and warm daytime temperatures have helped to stabilize the snowpack. In my travels on Thursday, primarily below treeline, I performed multiple stability tests with no results. Areas where you are most likely to trigger an avalanche are on steep slopes near and above treeline that face NW-N-E. If you decide to step out into this kind of terrain, choose planar slopes without complex terrain features. Avoid likely trigger points such as steep convexities, or shallow points along slope margins or near rock outcrops.
Outlying problem areas may still exist on upper elevation slopes facing W and SE. Data is sparse in these areas but we're making a concerted effort to get out and have a look at them.
Photo illustrates the poor structure that still exists. This test below treeline on a west aspect produced no results.
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.