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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, December 29, 2024
The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on steep slopes above treeline that face NW-N-NE-E. In these areas, recent and wind drifted snow have overloaded persistent weak layers of sugary, faceted snow, and human triggered avalanches are likely.
A MODERATE danger exists near treeline and below on steep slopes facing W through N through E, and on upper elevation slopes facing W and SE. In these areas, human triggered avalanches failing on a persistent weak layer are possible.
It's still low tide out there, and the recent snow will just barely cover rocks, stumps, and logs beneath the surface.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Geyser Pass Road: Expect slick conditions with a couple inches of new snow over a hard, icy surface. AWD with good tires required.
Grooming Conditions: Gavin ran his snowcat into Gold Basin and over Geyser Pass on Friday so trails are smooth!
Now is a great time to dial in your safety gear including putting fresh new batteries in your beacons! Local shops across the state will be handing out free Batteries for Beacons now until February 1, 2025. All you need to do is fill out a quick survey and grab the AAA or AA batteries you need to keep your beacon fresh this season. Head into Moab Gear Trader to get yours!
Weather and Snow
6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 4" Season Total Snow: 52" Depth at Gold Basin: 28"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: WSW 5-10 Temp: 25° F Percent of Normal (SWE): 113%
Weather
Westerly winds have been mostly light for the past 24 hours. Look for mostly sunny skies today, with increasing WSW winds this afternoon ahead of yet another shortwave trough passing by to the north. We'll see a slight chance for snow after midnight tonight with WSW winds blowing in the 20-25 mph range along ridge tops. Monday will be sunny and blustery with winds shifting to the NW. The upcoming week looks dry.
General Conditions
Although it's still thin, conditions are greatly improved. Brian Sparks reported that "skiing and riding conditions are excellent." All told, we received 6-10 inches of snow at between 0.8 and just above 1.0 inches of Snow Water Equivalent between Christmas Eve and Friday night. Today will be a good day to get out and get it before the wind does. Be alert to changing conditions and increased wind loading on northerly aspects later today. The recent snow has fallen on a snowpack that is almost entirely faceted through to the ground. Above treeline, strong SW through NW winds during the stormy period have blown and drifted snow on to leeward slopes while alternately scouring exposed, windward areas. South facing terrain has very thin, to no snowcover.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
One of the reasons we love it here. Brian Sparks photo.
Recent Avalanches
See the avalanche database here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Incremental loading has added stress to our weak, faceted snowpack increasing the odds for human triggered avalanches. Above treeline, areas of wind drifted snow have created additional stress to persistent weak layers, and human triggered avalanches are likely on steep slopes facing NW through E. Near treeline and below, the underlying snowpack is very weak on all slopes facing W through E, but we may not yet have a developed slab on top. Human triggered avalanches are possible in these areas, particularly on slopes where wind thickened slabs exist. Choose terrain wisely. Dig down in the snow and see if you can detect a denser slab on top of weaker snow. Cracking and collapsing are signs of instability. It's time to put the persistent weak layer problem back on our radar.
Additional Information
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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