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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, November 15, 2020
I'm back in the office and in the field for the 2020-2021 winter season. For the time being, I'll be monitoring conditions and posting periodic reports. I'll begin daily detailed avalanche forecasts when there is enough snow to ride which also means there will be enough snow to slide! For now, conditions are quite thin, and travel off the road is not recommended. About 6" of snow exists on the road above the Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead, with 8"- 10" at the end of the road in Gold Basin. A foot or more of snow likely exists at upper elevations and in some areas, the most recent snow has fallen on what remains from the Oct 26-26 storm event. Observations are starting to come in from early-season enthusiasts. Keep them coming, they are listed here.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Thanks to all who took the time to up their avalanche game and attend USAW online this season!
Weather and Snow
The mountains picked up trace amounts of snow Fri-Sat and it's been about a week since the last significant storm produced snow totals from 6"-10". We'll see a warming trend this week with the next possibility for snow not occurring until around Friday.
Keep abreast of current snow and weather conditions with the links below.
Storm totals at the Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000')
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast
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Additional Information
Here is a recap of the season snow history.
A powerful storm on Oct 25 brought the first significant snow to the mountains with snow levels dropping to the valley floor. Up to a foot of snow graced the high country. Aerial observer Chris Benson took these photos of a plastered mountain range, and Chris Bolos got the first turns of the season.
Oct 25 storm snow. Photo by Chris Benson.
Warm temperatures over the next couple of weeks diminished much of the early season snow. This alleviated some of our fears over a widespread, persistent weak layer, but some areas of old snow still remain. This will make things a bit tricky as we move forward and we will have to suspect weak, faceted snow at the base until we prove otherwise. Likely areas of concern are on sheltered, northerly aspects right around treeline, and in areas where the wind has deposited greater amounts of snow.
Photo by Brian Murdock.
A storm on Oct 9-10 brought another 6"-10" to the mountains. With the dry period that followed, this most recent snow will likely become a weak layer of loose, sugary facets at the base of the snowpack. We'll want to pay attention to this before the next snow comes hopefully later this week.
SE face of Mount Peale on Nov 13. Photo by Brian Murdock.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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