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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Dave Garcia
Issued by Dave Garcia on
Saturday morning, January 6, 2024
The avalanche danger is MODERATE on all steep slopes near tree line and above. Your primary concern today is soft slabs of wind-drifted snow. These fresh slabs have formed on top of a weak old snow surface and will be especially sensitive to the weight of a skier or rider.
The current snowpack is very weak. With additional loading, we will start to see avalanches involving persistent weak layers of faceted snow deeper in the pack.
The snowpack is still very shallow and rocks, logs, and stumps remain a hazard right now.
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Road Conditions: The road is not plowed this morning. With about five inches of snow, 4x4 and good tires area recommended.
Grooming: A grooming schedule for the weekend is being assembled, check back for details.
Weather and Snow
6:00 a.m. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow 5" 72 Hour Snow 7" Season Total Snow 48" Base Depth at Gold Basin 29"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: NW 25 Temp 5˚ F
Weather
It is a cold, crisp morning in Gold Basin. There is five inches of new snow, and we might even see a few hours of sunshine. It should be a beautiful day. The sun won't last long as the main event moves in tonight. Clouds should build this afternoon ahead of the front, and the next round of snow will start tonight. Snow continues through Monday, with the heaviest precipitation during the day on Sunday. I'm optimistic for 12-18" by the time it's all said and done on Monday. We look to be in a stormy pattern with more chances for snow mid-week, and also next weekend.
General Conditions
Skiing and riding conditions will be greatly improved with 7" of new snow since Wednesday night. The surprise 5" overnight came in with cold temperatures, and it is super low-density, classic Utah fluff. This low-density snow is easily transported by the moderate Northerly winds that kicked up overnight. Backcountry travelers should be alert to very sensitive soft slabs of wind-drifted snow failing on the now buried and very weak old snow surface. Overall the snowpack is very weak and faceted. While 7" inches of new snow may not be enough to wake up the buried persistent weak layers, we need to be aware that this weak snow is starting to get stressed and we could start to see avalanches failing on facets deeper in the pack. Remember that the snowpack is still very shallow and rocks and logs are still a danger.
I toured up the Laurel Highway yesterday and mapped out the weak layers ahead of the storm.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Overnight, the winds blew out of the North at 25-30 mph. Northerly winds can create some unusual loading patterns in the La Sals, and 7" of very low density snow will be easily whipped up into fresh, sensitive drifts today. Fresh soft slabs could be a foot deep or more and can be found on all aspects near tree line and above. I'm expecting these slabs of wind-drifted snow to be especially sensitive to the weight of a skier or rider today. Cracking and collapsing are obvious signs of instability.
The new snow will be poorly bonded to the old, weak snow surface. Look out for sluffing of the new snow if you find yourself in steep terrain today.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
If you have been following along, you know that our snowpack is very weak due to a long dry spell with many cold clear nights. Buried persistent weak layers of faceted grains are going to slowly start to wake up after being dormant for some time. The weakest snow is in the top 20 cm of the pack, now buried under the new snow. It won't take too much of a load for avalanches to start running on this weak layer. We will really start to see this layer come alive with heavy snow expected tomorrow.
See my observation from yesterday to learn how to locate and avoid this weak layer.
This short clip shows the location of the weakest snow.
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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