NWS Weather Forecast for the La Sal Mountains

Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')

It's been 10 days since the mountains were graced with 5" of low density powder, and the last significant storm before that was on December 31. Since then, the snow surface has been subject to the ravages of wind and sun and conditions are variable. A particularly unfortunate north wind event occurred on Friday, Jan 14, which put a damper on soft snow conditions on exposed northerly aspects. In our travels on Sunday, we were still able to find soft snow on sheltered, shady aspects, but even in the woods, the effects of the wind were present. Stout sun crusts have developed on southerly aspects, and some supportable corn-like conditions were beginning to develop.

You'd be hard pressed to trigger an avalanche, but that doesn't mean you couldn't. A persistent weak layer of faceted snow still exists at the base of the snow pack on northerly aspects. In many areas, this weak layer is buried by a strong slab 5'-7' thick. In other areas, the over riding slab is only 3'-4' thick. In thinner snowpack areas, the buried weak layer may be more easily affected by the weight of a skier or rider. This is why we say likely trigger points include thinner snowpack areas such as the lines along slope margins, near rocky outcrops, steep convexities, or on slopes that have previously avalanched. I would still strongly consider this before stepping out into very steep, rocky, radical terrain where triggering a deep, and dangerous avalanche remains possible.

In spite of the dry January so far, statewide snowpack averages are looking good.