Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Wednesday morning, January 13, 2021
Human triggered avalanches remain likely on steep, northerly facing slopes that have enough snow to ski or ride. However, due to a lack of sufficient snow cover on the majority of the terrain, the avalanche danger is isolated to specific features and therefore MODERATE. With the current snowpack structure consisting of a slab on top of layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow, steep, NW-E facing slopes with sufficient cover should be avoided for the foreseeable future. Blowing and drifting of snow may exacerbate this problem, particularly on slopes with an easterly component to their aspect. Most south-facing terrain has generally LOW danger.
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Special Announcements
The Geyser Pass Road is plowed. The surface is snow packed on dirt.
The Lower Utah Nordic Alliance (LUNA) groomed all trails on Saturday.
Chris Benson has detailed the last two weeks in this excellent synopsis.
Weather and Snow
Look for mostly sunny skies today and increasing NW winds blowing in the 15-20 mph range with higher gusts along ridge tops. High temps at 10,000' will be in the low 30's. Breezy conditions are expected through Thursday.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Storm totals at the Gold Basin study plot (10,000')
Snowpack Discussion In our travels to the east side of the range on Sunday, pro observer Nate Ament and I continued to observe signs of instability such as cracking and collapsing. We also observed a general deterioration of the shallow snowpack. Below treeline, the entire snowpack is starting to lose cohesion with the overriding slab beginning to disintegrate as well. Near treeline, the overriding slab is stiffer and more sensitive. Above treeline, the snow in many areas has been ravaged by the wind, and scoured surfaces alternate with smooth, hard slabs and crusts. Conditions are deceiving due to the overall lack of coverage and the general inaccessibility of avalanche terrain, but if you went searching for an avalanche you could still most certainly find one. Pro observer Dave Garcia sums it up like this, "if I attempted to ski anything that has enough snow to actually make turns I would most likely trigger an avalanche." The video below illustrates the current conditions.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
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Likelihood
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Description
Our snowpack is rife with persistent weak layers of loose, sugary, faceted snow along with a couple of smooth, hard, melt feeze layers to form a perfect bed surface. Red flag signs of instability such as collapsing and whumphing continue to be oberved. Although avalanche terrain remains difficult to access due to low coverage, human-triggered avalanches are likely steep, northerly facing slopes that have sufficient snow cover.
This snowpit illustrates the precarious state of the snowpack.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.