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I will be talking about assessing snow stability and lessons learned from last season's avalanche involvements at a "Tour Talk" at Prodigy Brewing in downtown Logan on Wednesday, December 17.

It is currently 33°F at the Card Canyon weather station at 8700 feet, with just over 15 inches of total snow. The Tony Grove Snotel at 8400 feet reports 23 inches of total snow, and 38°F. On Logan Peak at 9700 feet, increasing winds are blowing from the west 30 to 40 mph, and I'm reading a steady 32°F. At 9500 feet on Paris Peak, it's a cool 29°F with 20 to 30 mph wind blowing from the west-southwest.

A widespread thick and hard rain crust now caps the dense snow from the December 5/6 storm, and it's all overlaying a sugary, persistent weak layer near the ground. The hard crust is 4 to 6 inches thick, but you sink right through it in boots, and through the sugary November snow below it to the ground. While obvious signs of instability like cracking and whumpfing have generally subsided, snow stability tests continue to show potential for slab avalanches to propagate. Despite the problem of widespread faceted snow near the bottom of the snowpack, we think the thick crust will hold the snowpack together on most slopes for at least a few loading events.

There is a chance of snow today in the mountains, but less than a half-inch is expected to accumulate. It will be partly sunny, with highs around 35°F and increasing winds blowing from the west around 10 mph. An inch of accumulation is possible in upper elevation terrain tonight. Tomorrow it will snow, with 2 to 4 inches expected. It will be quite windy in the mountains with strong winds gusting from the southwest, and temperatures dropping into the lower twenties. A wintry weather pattern is expected to intensify in the latter half of the week. Snow is likely at upper elevations on Thursday, with 3 to 5 inches of accumulation possible. The weather pattern appears to stay active, with periods of heavy snow likely at upper elevations heading into the weekend.