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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed for
Monday, March 28, 2022
Dangerous wet avalanche conditions exist, and there is CONSIDERABLE danger at all elevations on backcountry slopes steeper than 30°. Large natural avalanches are possible, and people are likely to trigger dangerous wet slab avalanches up to three feet deep and a couple hundred feet wide on upper and mid elevation slopes facing the north half of the compass. Loose wet avalanches entraining large piles of saturated snow remain likely in steep terrain at all elevations.
  • Avoid being on or beneath backcountry slopes steeper than 30°, particularly during the heat of the day.
  • You should probably change your plans if you had big mountain objectives in mind...
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Special Announcements
Two generous UAC supporters are challenging the community to invest in the future of the UAC’s forecasting program during the 2022 Spring Campaign. They will match your donation, dollar for dollar, up to $10,000. Donate today to support avalanche forecasting!..... HERE
Weather and Snow
Dangerous avalanche conditions exist at all elevations, and there are areas with unstable snow, especially on upper and mid-elevation slopes facing the north half of the compass. Although mostly damp now, weak sugary faceted snow still exists on northerly facing slopes creating poor snow structure, and people are likely to trigger dangerous avalanches if they venture into this terrain today. Today's continuing way too warm temperatures will cause dangerous conditions for wet avalanches at all elevations. Natural wet loose and wet slab avalanches are possible, with wet slabs most likely in very steep terrain around or under cliff bands.
Natural wet slab avalanches occurred over the weekend in Shumway Canyon in the Wellsville Mountain Wilderness. Avalanche on the right is from Saturday, and the one on the left is from Sunday morning.
The 8400' Tony Grove Snotel reports 46°F again this morning, and there is 60 inches (or five feet) of total snow at the site, containing 74% of normal SWE for the date. South winds are blowing around 35 mph and gusting around 60 mph at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station, where 40°F is the current and low temperature this morning.
  • Today expect very warm conditions again, with increasing clouds, blustery south winds, and a good chance for snow and rain showers with little or no accumulation this afternoon. High temperatures at 8500' will be around 52°F, and 25-30 mph south-southwest winds are expected.
  • Snow showers are likely tonight, with 1 to 3 inches of accumulation possible on upper elevation slopes. It will be mostly cloudy, with low temperatures near 28°F, and continuing breezy 15 to 25 mph southwest winds.
  • Expect cooler temperatures tomorrow, with snow showers and possible thunder, and 1 to 3 inches of accumulation possible up high. It will be mostly cloudy, with high temperatures topping out around 42°F and 10 to 20 mph west-southwest winds.
  • Day and night temperatures will gradually cool down as we head into the week, and we'll see a bit of a break from the high angled sun. Mountain temperatures should drop to around 20°F tomorrow night. Mostly sunny skies are expected Wednesday, and unsettled, cooler and more seasonal weather is expected to continue through the week.
Recent Avalanches
A fresh natural slab avalanche in Bird Canyon was visible from across Cache Valley Saturday afternoon.
  • We observed several sizable fresh natural avalanches this weekend in the Wellsville Mountain Wilderness. Both wet loose and wet slab avalanches are quite visible from across Cache Valley.
  • A reported large avalanche occurred early last week in Steam Mill Canyon on a steep northeast facing slope at 9600'. The trigger is unknown but the avalanche measured approximately 2' deep and 900' wide. It failed on the same widespread, buried persistent weak layer. Report is HERE.
  • Last weekend people triggered a handful of dangerous slab avalanches that failed on our widespread buried persistent weak layer consisting of loose, sugary faceted snow.
A rider was mostly buried and he and his bent and broken sled had to be excavated by companions in an avalanche accident last Sunday in Crescent Lake Canyon, in the Franklin Basin area just south of the Idaho state line.
Check out all the recent backcountry observations and many recent avalanche reports from across Utah HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Wet Slab Avalanches:
On slopes facing the north half of the compass, natural avalanches are possible and it is likely people will trigger dangerous (wet) slab avalanches failing on a sugary, buried persistent weak layer, which is probably now pretty moist. Unstable snow exists on slopes plagued by this buried persistent weak layer. The warmth softened existing slabs and crust layers, and increased creep and glide rates, which has caused natural wet slab avalanches to become possible and triggered avalanches likely.
This large natural wet slab avalanche in the "Picture Window" area of Pine Canyon appears to have occurred on Sunday morning, since we did not see it with the glass on Saturday afternoon.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Wet loose avalanches remain likely in the backcountry today. Temperatures overnight did not drop below freezing in the mountains, but the mostly clear skies probably cooled and superficially hardened the snow surface. It will be way too hot, well above average again today, and you should change your plans if you had big mountain objectives in mind. When the snow surface becomes damp or unsupportable, it's time to head home. Watch for signs of heat-related instability like rollerballs, pinwheels, or sluffs of saturated surface snow. Just like a spilled 7/11 Slushy, wet or damp snow is generally unstable on steep slopes.
These broad natural wet loose avalanches occurred sometime in the morning yesterday on the Wellsville Cone in the Wellsville Mountain Wilderness.
Additional Information
  • Now is a great time to practice your avalanche rescue skills. Thanks to the generous support of Northstar, the Franklin Basin Beacon Training Park is up and running. The park is located directly west of the parking lot and is open for anyone to use. All you need is your beacon and probe. Please do not dig up the transmitters.
  • Always follow safe backcountry travel protocols. Go one person at a time in avalanche terrain, while the rest of your party watches from a safe area. (practice anytime while traveling on or under backcountry slopes steeper than 30°)
  • Check your avalanche rescue equipment, change your batteries, and practice often with your backcountry partners.
    Check slope angles, and to avoid avalanche terrain stay off of and out from under slopes steeper than 30° and adjacent slopes. Video Here
General Announcements
Special thank you to Polaris and Northstar...Video Here
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
  • Please submit your observations from the backcountry HERE.
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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