Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains
Issued by Toby Weed on
Saturday morning, March 14, 2020
Saturday morning, March 14, 2020
Although the avalanche danger is LOW across the Logan Zone this morning, accumulations of new snow and drifting from strong southwest winds will cause the avalanche danger to rise to MODERATE in some upper elevation terrain today. It will be increasingly possible for people to trigger shallow slab avalanches of wind drifted snow or loose avalanches of moist storm snow on steep slopes.
- Evaluate snow and terrain carefully.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Snow is just starting to fall and it's 29°F at the 8400' Tony Grove Snotel. There is 82 inches of total snow at the site, containing 111% of normal Snow Water Equivalent. It's 25°F at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station, and south winds have increased significantly in the past few hours, currently blowing about 33 mph with gusts in the upper 40s.
Only a few inches of accumulation is forecast to fall on upper elevation slopes, with potentially more north of the State Line. Light rain is possible at lower elevations.
A storm system along the Pacific Northwest coast will generate an increasingly strong and mild southerly flow across Utah this weekend. A weak front will stall across extreme northwest Utah, bringing a chance of precipitation near the Utah/Idaho border later today through early Sunday. Snow showers are expected today, with 3 to 7 inches of accumulation at upper elevations in the northern part of the zone, with 1 to 3 in the south. High temperatures will again be near 40°F at around 8500' with southwest winds blowing 26-31 mph along the ridges. Snow showers will continue tonight. It will be cloudy with low temperatures around 25°F and breezy, with 18 to 22 mph south wind. Expect snow and rain showers in the mountains tomorrow, with little accumulation likely, high temperatures again above 40°F, and 15 mph south-southwest winds.
Recent Avalanches
Last Saturday, a very close call occurred when a skier was caught from behind and carried on top of the wet debris at least 800 vt' in a wet avalanche around 2:30 in the afternoon in the North Syncline Gully. The avalanche occurred on a north facing slope and the estimated start of the avalanche was at about 7800'. The party is unsure if they triggered the avalanche or if it was a natural from above.
We had a look at a recent natural wet avalanche that hit and dammed the Logan River last weekend. The low elevation snow in the area was saturated and unsupportable.
Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Only a few inches of snow is forecast south of the State Line, with several more possible to the north of it. Heightened avalanche conditions will develop in upper elevation areas that pick up a few inches or more.
Drifting from southwest winds will create shallow drifts of storm snow which could be sensitive to human triggering. Loose avalanches of moist storm snow will also become likely in steep terrain.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Tuesday's new snow quickly became moist with warm temperatures, and shallow loose wet activity was widespread on steep slopes. In areas where a few inches or more of new snow accumulates today, similar conditions will develop. People could trigger loose wet avalanches on steep slopes with moist new snow today. Rain will fall on lower elevation slopes and if the wet snow gets soft and unsupportable, it is time to head home.
- Avoid being on or under steep slopes with melt-softened saturated snow.
- Roller balls, pinwheels, and naturally occurring sluffs or other avalanches indicate potential for wet avalanche activity.
- Avoid ridge top cornices, which can break much further back than expected and could start avalanches on slopes below.
Additional Information
Here is what we found in the Central Bear River Range on Tuesday,
Last Sunday, I was taking pictures of fresh natural wet avalanche debris above Guiniva-Malibu Campground when I accidently caught another one starting to fall off cliffs down-canyon...
General Announcements
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This forecast is from the USDA Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
We will update this forecast before about 7:30 tomorrow morning.