Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains
Issued by Toby Weed on
Monday morning, February 3, 2020
Monday morning, February 3, 2020
Heavy snow and drifting from strong winds will create increasingly dangerous avalanche conditions and CONSIDERABLE danger at all elevations in the backcountry today. People are likely to trigger avalanches of new and wind drifted snow, and natural activity is possible, especially during periods of heavy snowfall. Avalanches are possible on unexpected slopes at lower elevations, in the foothills, and even on steep slopes and cut banks in the valleys.
- Avoid travel on and under steep drifted slopes.
- Evaluate snow and terrain carefully. Use caution while route-finding, and make conservative decisions.
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Special Avalanche Bulletin
IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 6 AM MST TUESDAY
THE MOUNTAINS, BENCHES, AND STEEP TERRAIN IN THE VALLEYS
HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE UNSTABLE, DANGEROUS, AVALANCHE PRONE SLOPES, PARTICULARLY IN THE BENCHES AND VALLEYS.
THE AVALANCHE DANGER WILL AFFECT THOSE TYPICALLY UNAWARE OF THE DANGER.
AVOID BEING IN OR BENEATH STEEP TERRAIN, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS SUCH AS CREEK BEDS AND GULLIES WHERE THE SNOW MAY PILE UP DEEPLY.
Weather and Snow
Temperatures dropped almost 30 degrees overnight at the 8400' Tony Grove Snotel, and it's 12°F this morning. There is 3 inches of new snow and now 78 inches of total snow, containing 118% of normal Snow Water Equivalent. Northwest winds are currently blowing around 20 mph, and gusting into the 40s at the CSI Logan Peak weather station, and it's 1°F at 9700'.
Looks like significantly more snow fell at low elevations in Cache Valley, and north winds are certainly moving it around. Dangerous avalanche conditions will likely develop on drifted slopes at all elevations today, with unexpected avalanches possible in the foothills and on steep hills and cut-banks even down in the valleys.
The National Weather Service continued a Winter Storm Warning through 10:00 PM tonight. A strong and cold storm will impact a widespread area including the Logan Zone. We'll see snow today, with 4 to 8 inches of accumulation at upper elevations. 8500' high temperatures are expected around 13°F, with 15 to 25 mph northwest winds, and wind chills around -13°F. Snow is expected to tapper off tonight, with temperatures dropping to around 1°F, 7 to 13 mph winds veering from the east southeast, and wind chills around -14°F. It will be mostly sunny but cold tomorrow, with high temperatures around 10°F, 6 to 8 mph northeast winds and wind chills around -13°F. The strong and cold storm is expected to wind down tonight, but expect much colder weather to remain for a few days, with unsettled winter weather through the week.
Recent Avalanches
There were several small triggered and natural avalanches of wind drifted snow at upper elevations in the Logan Zone this week, and a few sizable cornice falls.
Small natural loose wet avalanches and roller balls were common across the zone over the weekend, with narrow but long-running natural activity reported from the large east facing slopes in the Wellsville Mountain Wilderness.
Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Significant drifting is going on the morning at lower elevations and in Cache Valley due to heavy snowfall and strong north winds. Drifts will continue to build and the danger of people triggering avalanches will increase at all elevations during the day.
- Watch for and avoid fresh drifts near ridge lines and in and around terrain features like cliff bands, scoops, gully walls, and sub-ridges.
- Avoid ridge top cornices, which can break much further back than expected and start avalanches on slopes below.
Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Soft slabs of heavy new snow are possible for people to trigger on steep slopes at all elevations where significant deposits of new snow accumulates today. Avalanches are possible even in normally sheltered and lower elevation terrain.
- Natural avalanches of new snow are most possible during periods of particularly heavy snowfall.
- Natural avalanches of fresh powder snow could move fast and travel far, so people should avoid travel below steep slopes, avalanche paths and run out zones.
General Announcements
Are you looking to improve your avalanche skills? We are offering a Backcountry 101: Introduction to Avalanches class at Powder Mountain February 14-15. Info and sign up HERE
The anual CROWBAR backcountry ski race will be on Saturday, February 8. The unique and classic backcountry race will be held at the Swan Flat/Garden City Trailhead in upper Logan Canyon. There are four divisions (Junior, Recreation, Heavy Metal & Race) with different climbs, descents, and technical booters. Participants must carry avalanche rescue gear (beacon, shovel, probe) and can use alpine touring gear, telemark skis, or splitboards. Register on UltraSignup, or sign up to volunteer at this year's race!
Thanks to the generous support of our Utah ski resorts and Ski Utah, we have discount lift tickets available. All proceeds from these go towards paying for avalanche forecasting and education! Get your tickets HERE.
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Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations....HERE. You can also call us at 801-524-5304, email by clicking HERE, or include #utavy in your tweet or Instagram.
This forecast is from the USDA Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
I will update this forecast before about 7:30 tomorrow morning.