Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains
Issued by Toby Weed on
Sunday morning, December 29, 2019
Sunday morning, December 29, 2019
Dress warmly and keep an eye on your partner's exposed skin today, as wind chill values are expected to be as low as -28°F in the mountains. Snow is stable and the danger LOW on most slopes in the Logan Backcountry, but drifting from northwest winds yesterday and overnight probably created areas with MODERATE danger in some steep upper elevation terrain.
- Use normal caution.
- Evaluate upper elevation snow and terrain carefully.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
It's 6°F at the 8400' Tony Grove Snotel this morning, and there's 44 inches of total snow, with 98% of average SWE for the date. It's 2°F on Logan Peak, and the wind is still blowing from the northwest this morning around 20 mph.
The avalanche danger is Low and the snow is stable on most slopes in the Logan Zone. Avalanches are generally unlikely, but possibility still exists for people to trigger avalanches, mainly on drifted upper elevation slopes. People should also continue to avoid very steep rocky slopes with thin snow cover. The cold northerly flow aloft will continue through the weekend. We will likely see some significant snow in the first couple days of 2020, with snow starting up late Tuesday night near the Idaho State Line and a winter storm crossing the area Wednesday and Thursday.
It will be cloudy in the mountains today, and there is a chance of some snowfall in the afternoon, with 1 to 2 inches of accumulation possible. Expect 8500' high temperatures around 14°F, northwest wind 11 to 14 mph, and wind chill values as low as -28°F! Snow showers will continue into the evening, with less than a half inch expected. It will be cloudy tonight, with low temperatures around 0°F, and 10 to 14 mph northwest winds causing wind chill values around -17°F. It will be mostly sunny in the mountains tomorrow, with high temperatures near 20°F, north wind 6 to 11 mph, and wind chill values around -10°F.
Recent Avalanches
No new avalanches were reported in the Logan Zone since natural activity during the mid December Storm.
Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Although it is unlikely for a person to trigger an avalanche, it is still possible, especially on very steep upper elevation slopes. Use normal caution means being situationally aware and prepared for possible avalanches.
- Everyone in your party needs to have and know how to efficiently use a beacon, probe, and shovel.
- Cross steep slopes or possible avalanche paths one-at-a-time while the rest of your party watches from a safe area.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Human triggered avalanches involving wind drifted snow are possible on some upper elevation slopes. Northwest winds continued yesterday and overnight, drifting available loose snow into upper elevation deposition zones.
- Even small avalanches can be quite dangerous in shallow snow conditions.
- Watch for and avoid stiffer drifted snow near ridge lines and in and around terrain features like cliff bands, scoops, gully walls, and sub-ridges.
Avalanche Problem #3
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The sugary October persistent weak layer near the ground on northerly upper elevation slopes appears to be dormant for now, but it's still a good plan to avoid steep, thin, rocky terrain.
General Announcements
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This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. I will update this advisory before about 7:30 tomorrow morning.