Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains
Issued by Toby Weed on
Saturday morning, December 28, 2019
Saturday morning, December 28, 2019
You can find stable snow and LOW avalanche danger on most slopes in the Logan Backcountry. Northwest winds picked up overnight however, and drifting may have created MODERATE danger in some areas. You might trigger an avalanche of wind drifted snow on a steep upper elevation slope. The sugary October persistent weak layer near the ground on northerly upper elevation slopes appears to be dormant for now, but it's still a good plan to avoid steep, thin, rocky terrain.
- Use normal caution.
- Evaluate upper elevation snow and terrain carefully.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
It's 10°F at the 8400' Tony Grove Snotel this morning, and there's 44 inches of total snow, with 103% of average SWE for the date. It's 2°F on Logan Peak, and the wind is blowing from the northwest this morning around 20 mph.
The avalanche danger is Low and the snow is stable on most slopes in the Logan Zone. Avalanches are generally unlikely, but possibility still exists for people to trigger avalanches, mainly on drifted upper elevation slopes. People should also continue to avoid very steep rocky slopes with thin snow cover. The cold northerly flow aloft will continue through the weekend, and it looks increasingly likely that we will see some significant snow in the first few days of 2020.
It will be sunny in the mountains today with 8500' high temperatures around 15°F, north-northwest wind 9 to 18 mph, and wind chills around -16°F. It will be partly cloudy tonight, with a chance of a bit of snow after midnight. Expect low temperatures around -5°F, and 11 to 16 mph northwest winds causing wind chill values as low as -24°F. Snow is likely tomorrow afternoon, but little in the way of accumulation is expected. It will be mostly cloudy with high temperatures near 15°F, west-northwest wind around 16 mph, and wind chill values around -17°F.
Recent Avalanches
No new avalanches were reported in the Logan Zone since natural activity during the mid December Storm.
Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Although it is unlikely for a person to trigger an avalanche, it is still possible, especially on very steep upper elevation slopes. Use normal caution means being situationally aware and prepared for possible avalanches.
- Everyone in your party needs to have and know how to efficiently use a beacon, probe, and shovel.
- Cross steep slopes or possible avalanche paths one-at-a-time while the rest of your party watches from a safe area.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Human triggered avalanches involving wind drifted snow are possible on some upper elevation slopes. Northwest winds increased overnight, drifting available loose snow into upper elevation deposition zones.
- Even small avalanches can be quite dangerous in shallow snow conditions.
- Watch for and avoid stiffer drifted snow near ridge lines and in and around terrain features like cliff bands, scoops, gully walls, and sub-ridges.
Avalanche Problem #3
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Weak sugary, faceted snow from late October still lurks near the ground at upper elevations on northwest through east facing slopes. Although the sugary persistent weak layer appears dormant currently, and it is unlikely for a person to trigger one, large and destructive avalanches, 2 to 4 feet deep are still a possiblity on isolated slopes with poor snow structure.
General Announcements
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This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. I will update this advisory before about 7:30 tomorrow morning.