Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains
Issued by Toby Weed on
Monday morning, December 23, 2019
Monday morning, December 23, 2019
Heightened avalanche conditions and MODERATE danger exist on drifted upper and mid-elevation slopes in the backcountry. You could trigger an avalanche of wind drifted snow in exposed terrain. Dangerous deep slab avalanches failing on a persistent weak layer are unlikely for a person to trigger these days, but they remain possible on some upper elevation slopes facing northwest, north, northeast, and east. Deep slab avalanches might be triggered from a shallow area of the slab, so it's a good plan to avoid steep, thin, rocky terrain.
Safer conditions and mostly LOW danger can be found in sheltered terrain and at lower elevations.
Safer conditions and mostly LOW danger can be found in sheltered terrain and at lower elevations.
- Evaluate snow and terrain carefully.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Weather and Snow
It's 35°F at the 8400' Tony Grove Snotel this morning, and I'm reading 44 inches of total snow, with 110% of average SWE for the date. It's 28°F on Logan Peak, and yesterday's pesky south winds continued overnight and this morning are blowing around 34 mph with a 54 mph gust.
Snow in exposed terrain was already getting wind-jacked up in Bloomington Canyon Friday. Stiff drifts probably formed on weak and sugary surface snow in some areas.
Expect partly sunny conditions in the mountains today, with 8500' high temperatures around 33°F and south-southwest winds 10 to 13 mph. It will be mostly cloudy tonight with a good chance for 1 to 2 inches of snow after midnight. Low temperatures will be around 22°F, and a south wind around 11 mph is expected. Snow showers are likely on Tuesday, with 1 to 3 inches of accumulation, and temperatures dropping to around 23°F, and south-southwest winds 11 to 13 mph.
Warm temperatures are causing the nice surface snow to become stiffer and crusty in places, but you can still find nice and fast recrystallized snow (loud powder), in sheltered terrain. Today's continuing south-southwest winds and balmy weather is only creating more variable snow surface conditions. Heightened avalanche conditions exist on drifted upper and mid-elevation slopes. Dangerous avalanches failing on a deep persistent weak layer are unlikely for a person to trigger, but remain a possibility on isolated upper elevation slopes, especially on very steep rocky slopes with thin snow cover.
Recent Avalanches
People triggered a few avalanches of stiff wind drifted snow in the Utah backcountry yesterday, and there were a couple close calls with larger than expected avalanches.
No new avalanches were reported in the Logan Zone since last weekend's natural cycle that occurred during the windy storm.
A large natural avalanche in the Central Wood Camp Bowls. (12-17-19)
Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Human triggered avalanches involving wind drifted snow are possible on upper and mid elevation slopes.
- Watch for and avoid stiffer drifted snow in and around terrain features like cliff bands, scoops, gully walls, and sub-ridges.
- Stiff or harder wind drifts might allow a person to get well out on them before releasing.
- Some wind slab avalanches might be triggered remotely or from a distance.
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Even small avalanches can be very dangerous in shallow snow conditions, because you could be dragged into rocks or stumps.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Weak sugary, faceted snow from late October still lurks near the ground at upper elevations on northwest through east facing slopes. Although gradually becoming unlikely for a person to trigger, large, destructive, and very dangerous avalanches are still possible where this poor snow structure exists. Deep slab avalanches might still be triggered by a larger trigger or from a shallow area of the slab. Dangerous avalanches on isolated slopes still might be triggered remotely, from a distance, or below!
It looks like a few of the large natural avalanches from the weekend failed on a layer of smaller grained sugary or faceted snow that formed above the Thanksgiving storm snow. Today's wind and warmth hopefully will continue to destroy the weak surface snow we've been seeing on many slopes before it is buried by light snow in the coming week.
This 12-14-19 natural avalanche near Tony Grove Lake failed on weak, sugary or faceted snow near the ground.
General Announcements
Remember the Beaver Mountain Backside is the backcountry. Buddy up! Everyone venturing beyond the ski area boundary should have a partner(s), beacon, probe, and shovel.
Thanks to the generous support of our Utah ski resorts and Ski Utah, we have discount lift tickets available. All proceeds from these go towards paying for avalanche forecasting and education! Get your tickets HERE.
Consider taking an avalanche class, there are many different options. Click on the Education menu for a full list of classes from the UAC and other providers. Check out the Know Before You Go eLearning program for free, online, avalanche classes.... HERE
Need a Christmas present for your favorite backcountry partner? Get one of these cool t-shirts to support the UAC and other avalanche centers across the U.S. HERE
It's key to head into the early avalanche season with the proper mindset. In this podcast, we talk with UAC program director Bo Torrey. Bo talks about particular risks unique to the early season, tips and tricks for knocking the rust off your early season rescue skills, and charts out the path forward with avalanche education. HERE
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Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations....HERE. You can also call us at 801-524-5304, email by clicking HERE, or include #utavy in your tweet or Instagram.
I will update this advisory before about 7:30 tomorrow morning.