Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains
Issued by Toby Weed on
Sunday morning, November 15, 2020
Sunday morning, November 15, 2020
Heightened avalanche conditions and MODERATE danger exist on steep upper and mid elevation slopes, and people could trigger avalanches. Heavy snowfall and drifting from sustained and gusty west-southwest winds will cause rising danger of avalanches of drifted new snow in the backcountry today. During the day, dangerous conditions and CONSIDERABLE danger may develop on some upper elevation slopes, with human triggered avalanches becoming likely.
- Avoid steep slopes with recent deposits of wind drifted snow. Even a very small, early season avalanche can be very dangerous if you are caught carried over rocks or raked through bushes and stumps.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Bear River Range through late tonight, with up to about a foot of new snow possible on favored upper elevation slopes and sustained west southwest winds. About 17" of new snow fell at the 8400' TGLU1 Friday night, and snow is flying again this morning in the mountains. Overnight, southwest winds picked again with hourly average wind speeds of 34 mph and gusts close to 60 mph at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station. Plenty of new snow and significant wind drifting has created heightened avalanche conditions on many steep upper and mid-elevation slopes, and people could trigger avalanches of wind drifted new snow. Continued drifting from west winds today could cause dangerous conditions to develop in some upper elevation terrain, and people will be more likely to trigger dangerous wind slab avalanches.
Paige looks at shallow pre-storm snow conditions in the Central Bear River Range on 11-13-2020
There is not yet enough snow to cause much risk of avalanches on most slopes now, but shallow, early season snow conditions can still be quite dangerous. Recently, shallow snow conditions are to blame for the tragic death of a Bozman woman who died while skiing a steep chute in the Montana backcountry (info here). Also, for that of a British Columbia snowboarder who was killed by head trauma in a “freak backcountry accident” while skiing on his split board in relatively flat, rolling terrain. He was found with his helmet off his head and on his backpack (info here).
Recent Avalanches
Please report what you are seeing out there, especially any new avalanche activity. No avalanches were reported yet in the zone.
Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Avalanches of fresh wind drifted snow are possible on all steep upper and mid elevation slopes, most likely on slopes facing the eastern half of the compass. Even a small wind slab avalanche could be very dangerous due to shallow early season snow conditions. You do not want to get caught and carried over rocks or strained through bushes and stumps, so it's best to avoid travel on all steep drifted slopes.
Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Soft slab and loose avalanches of new snow are possible today as fresh snow stacks up on steep slopes at upper and mid elevations. Nature activity is possible during periods of particularly heavy snowfall.
Additional Information
As snow starts to accumulate in the backcountry, it’s a good idea to tone it down because it’s pretty easy to get hurt in shallow snow, and it’s absolutely the worst time to do so because you could ruin your whole season.
- Avoid going too fast, maintain control, and be conservative.
- Stick to smooth, grassy, low-angled slopes.
General Announcements
The Tony Grove Road is not maintained for wheeled vehicles in the winter, and you can expect very poor driving conditions this weekend. Be sure you are dressed for winter and have a shovel and emergency items if you do attempt to drive up. Please keep your speed down and be patient.
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This forecast is from the USDA Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.