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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed for
Thursday, November 10, 2022
More than two feet of new snow and drifting from strong winds created CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger at upper elevations in the backcountry. Dangerous conditions exist on many upper elevation slopes, and people are likely to trigger 1 to 2-foot-deep slab avalanches of drifted storm snow. Heightened conditions can also be found on some drifted mid elevation slopes where people could trigger small avalanches.
  • People should use careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route finding, and conservative decision making if traveling in upper elevation terrain. I plan to avoid travel on or under drifted slopes steeper than 30 degrees.
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Weather and Snow
It's game on! Looks like about 28 inches of new snow accumulated up at the 8400' Tony Grove Snotel, with 2.9" of SWE and there is now 45" of total snow. Overnight winds from the west blew consistently 25-30 mph, with gusts close to 50 mph. Snow showers will cease today, and skies will gradually clear. High temperatures at 8500' will not rise far above 15° F and wind chill values will be as low as -7° F. Expect a nice sunny day with continued cold temperatures on Veterans Day, and it looks like a dry weekend in store.
Shallow early season snow conditions exist, with about a foot-and-a-half of total snow covering the rocks on most upper elevation slopes before this week's snow. Although the heavy snow keeps you off the ground, extreme caution is required to avoid hitting shallowly buried rocks, stumps, or down trees.
  • Today people are likely to trigger slab avalanches of wind drifted storm snow in exposed terrain above about 8000ft in elevation.
  • The snow is still so shallow in avalanche run-out zones that people could sustain serious injuries if they are caught and carried over rocks in even a small avalanche.
Recent Avalanches
No avalanches were yet reported but several parties triggered collapses (or whumps) in lower angle terrain over the weekend. Audible collapses are a red flag signals indicating unstable snow.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
People are likely to trigger slab avalanches of wind drifted storm snow if they venture onto exposed upper elevation slopes. Triggered avalanches will also be possible on some drifted mid elevation slopes.
Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
People could trigger avalanches of storm snow, even in more sheltered terrain on slopes steeper than 30 degrees.
Additional Information
  • Take the all-new online avalanche courses the UAC built for Know Before You Go or take other online courses listed on the KBYG website (Develop skills -> Online Learning).
  • Get your avalanche rescue gear ready for winter. Put fresh batteries in your transceiver and update the firmware. Inspect your shovel and probe. Get your airbag backpack ready by possibly doing a test deployment and update the firmware if it is an electric version.
General Announcements
The Tony Grove Road is not maintained for wheeled vehicles in the winter, and you are likely to encounter unimproved winter driving conditions as snow piles up with this storm.
Please submit your observations from the backcountry HERE.
For information on where you can ride your sled or snowbike, check out this map of the winter travel plan for the Tony Grove and Franklin Basin Areas HERE.
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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