Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains
Issued by Toby Weed on
Monday morning, January 6, 2020
Monday morning, January 6, 2020
Dangerous avalanche conditions and CONSIDERABLE danger exist on drifted upper elevation slopes in the backcountry. Human triggered avalanches of wind drifted snow are likely today, especially on upper elevation east facing slopes. People could also trigger avalanches on drifted mid elevation slopes and in some areas where a persistent weak layer was buried by the New Years Storm. You can find safer conditions and nice, mostly stable snow at lower elevations, and in lower angled and sheltered terrain.
- Evaluate snow and terrain carefully. Use caution while route finding, and make conservative decisions.
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Weather and Snow
It's 18°F at the 8400' Tony Grove Snotel this morning, and there is about 9 inches of new snow, with 1" SWE in the past 24 hours. There is 59 inches of total snow, with 116% of average SWE for the date. It's 11°F at the CSI weather station at 9700' on Logan Peak, and west winds are currently blowing around 28 mph and gusting near 50 mph.
Strong westerly winds messed with the nice powder at upper elevations and on exposed slopes, but almost a foot of nice new snow from yesterday will refresh conditions nicely. Dangerous avalanche conditions exist on drifted upper elevation slopes, and people could trigger serious avalanches in the backcountry again today. You can find nice shallow powder and much safer conditions at lower elevations, in lower angled and sheltered terrain.
Wind-jacked snow at upper elevations near Tony Grove Lake.
Snow showers will taper off this morning and it'll be mostly sunny in the mountains by this afternoon. Expect 8500' high temperatures around 23°F and west wind 15 to 24 mph. It will be partly cloudy tonight, with low temperatures expected to be around 11°F, rising to around 29°F during the night, with 13 to 15 mph west winds. Expect mostly sunny conditions tomorrow with high temperatures around 32°F, and 11 mph southwest winds. Active weather is expected to continue through the week, with the next weak storm expected Wednesday and Thursday.
Recent Avalanches
A close call occurred Saturday (1-4-2020) when a party of 4 riders triggered a sizable avalanche of wind drifted snow at about 9000' on an east-southeast facing slope above Hidden Lake in Gibson Basin, a couple miles north of the state line out of Beaver Creek Canyon. One rider was caught, carried, and partially buried. The avalanche was about 2' deep and around 125' wide.
Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
People are likely to trigger 1 to 3 foot deep avalanches of wind drifted snow on upper elevation slopes facing the eastern half of the compass today. Avalanches are possible on many other slopes as well.
- Watch for and avoid stiffer drifted snow near ridge lines and in and around terrain features like cliff bands, scoops, gully walls, and sub-ridges.
- Wind slabs are often rounded and chalky looking, and they might sound hollow, like a drum.
- Soft fresh wind slabs can be quite sensitive, and are often remotely triggered. Hard wind slabs can be more devious, sometime allowing one to get out on them before releasing.
- Avoid ridge top cornices, which can break much further back than expected and start avalanches on slopes below.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Human triggered avalanches failing on a newly buried persistent weak layer are possible on slopes steeper than about 30 degrees at upper and mid elevations. The cold weather last week created sugary weak surface snow in many areas, and some slopes were plagued by feathery surface hoar. A persistent weak layer associated with a thin sun-crust appears to be active on drifted sunny slopes in many areas across Northern Utah. Some avalanches today might be triggered remotely, from a distance or below. Some slopes in the area may stay unstable for a while.
Persistent weak layers consisting of feathery surface hoar and sugary near surface facets were buried by the New Years Storm on many slopes, and some of these may stay unstable for a while.
Additional Information
We had a great time with the Avalanche 101 class up at Tony Grove on Saturday....
General Announcements
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This forecast is from the USDA Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
I will update this forecast before about 7:30 tomorrow morning.