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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Tuesday morning, January 3, 2023
There is CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger on upper and mid elevation slopes in the backcountry. Heavy snow and drifting from the New Years Storm created slabs of unstable snow on slopes with a sugary persistent weak layer buried 2 to 4 feet deep. People are likely to trigger large and dangerous avalanches, and these might be triggered from a distance or below.
Except for areas threatened from above, the danger is much lower at low elevations, below about 7500' where rain saturated the shallow snow and colder temperatures have since frozen it solid. Elevated conditions exist at and above the recent rain/snow line.
  • Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route finding, and conservative decision-making are essential for safe backcountry travel.
  • We've been able to find great shallow powder and safe conditions in the meadows, on slopes less steep than 30°, and at lower elevations.
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Weather and Snow
We've been able to find fantastic, fast and fun powder conditions at low elevations and in safe lower angled terrain (less steep than 30°) in the backcountry. The snow at lower elevations was saturated by rain during the New Years storm, and much cooler temperatures since then formed solid refrozen crusts. The hard, stable snow is now capped by several inches of nice powder, and offers a safe backcountry option and smooth and fast conditions for travel in lower angled terrain.
About an inch of new snow fell early this morning in the Central Bear River Range. It's 17° F and there is just under 6 feet of total snow at the 8400' TGLU1 Snotel site. Winds are blowing 20 mph from the southwest and it's 11° F at the CSI Logan Peak weather station at 9700'.
It'll be cloudy with a few lingering snow showers this morning. Temperatures at 8500' will be in the teens and winds will be blowing 10 to 15 mph out of the west on the ridges. Expect mostly cloudy skies tonight, with low temperatures in the teens and 15 mph wind from the west. Tomorrow's weather will be similar to today's, with cloudy skies, and slightly increased winds, 15 to 25 mph from the southwest. Unsettled, cloudy weather, with periods of light snow will last through the work week.
Recent Avalanches
Riders found a recent large avalanche on Sunday in Richard's Hollow off Red Pine Ridge near Adam's Corral and above White Rock Spring... The avalanche was reported as being naturally triggered, but it also could have been remotely triggered by riders on Red Pine Ridge. The avalanche failed on a buried persistent weak layer and was around 3 feet deep and 500 feet wide, and it ran around 800 vrt'. See Report HERE.
We couldn't see much of the high country yesterday with clouds and flat light, but I noticed some natural avalanches from the storm in Tab Hollow, Mill Hollow, and the Drop In-Drop Out avalanche path in Logan Canyon above Bridger Campground.
Be sure to check out all observations HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
In many places, people are likely to trigger large and dangerous avalanches failing on a deeply buried sugary persistent weak layer. Such an avalanche could be triggered remotely, from a distance or below. The persistent weak layer from November is now buried 2-4 feet deep, and any avalanche that fails on it will likely be hundreds of feet wide. We are still able to get consistent test results showing propagating tendencies in many of our test pits..
Here's a picture of a part of the crown line of an avalanche from Sunday off Red Pine Ridge. The avalanche that failed on the November PWL either naturally occurred shortly before it's discovery or it might have been remotely triggered by riders on Red Pine Ridge.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
East and northeast winds were fairly strong at upper elevations yesterday, and this is a somewhat unusual wind direction for sustained winds to blow from. While calm conditions were observed in some areas, in others winds at upper and mid elevations drifted snow even as it fell on Sunday, depositing slabs of stiffer snow in unusual or perhaps unexpected places and overloading slopes with poor snow structure that have up till now not seen a significant load.
  • Cracking is a obvious sign of unstable snow.
  • Of course, people should avoid and stay out from under all slopes with significant accumulations of drifted new snow.
  • Watch for and avoid drifts in unusual or unexpected places and in and around terrain features like cliff bands, gully walls, sub ridges, saddles, and sinks.
Additional Information
General Announcements
  • Remember, when you leave the ski area boundary, Beaver Mt or Cherry Peak, you are entering the backcountry, and you could trigger dangerous avalanches.
  • Please submit your observations from the backcountry HERE.
  • For a list of avalanche classes from the Utah Avalanche Center go HERE
  • For information on where you can ride your sled or snowbike, check out this map of the winter travel plan for the Tony Grove and Franklin Basin Areas HERE.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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