Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains
Issued by Toby Weed on
Sunday morning, January 19, 2020
Sunday morning, January 19, 2020
Dangerous avalanche conditions and CONSIDERABLE danger still exist on some drifted upper and mid elevation slopes in the backcountry today. People are likely to trigger avalanches of wind drifted snow. Some of these could step down to a buried persistent weak layer and be large, destructive, and very dangerous. Wet avalanches are possible on some steep sunny slopes. You can find much safer conditions at lower elevations, on lower angled slopes, and in sheltered terrain.
- Evaluate snow and terrain carefully. Use caution while route finding, and make conservative decisions.
- Continue to avoid travel on or under steep drifted slopes.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
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Special Announcements
We are very sad to report an avalanche fatality that happened yesterday above Farmington Canyon. A 18 year old, male snowmobiler was caught, fully buried and killed. Preliminary info available HERE. We will re-visit the scene today and have a full report available in the coming days. Our deepest condolences go out to the friends, family, rescuers, and everyone affected by this tragic accident.
Weather and Snow
It's 18°F at the 8400' Tony Grove Snotel this morning, and there is 85 inches of total snow at the site, containing 125% of normal SWE. West winds diminished a bit overnight at the CSI Logan Peak weather station. They are currently blowing around 20 mph, and it's 17°F at 9700'.
The deep powder has settled out significantly, and the snow on most slopes appears stable. Lots of people got out into the backcountry yesterday to track up the nice powder, and no avalanche incidents were reported in the Logan Zone. Even so, areas with dangerous avalanche conditions still exist today on some drifted upper and mid-elevation slopes, with human triggered avalanches likely.
Today will be sunny, with 8500' high temperatures around 27°F, 5 to 9 mph west-southwest winds will veer from the east-southeast in the morning, and wind chills will be around -5 °F. Expect increasing clouds tonight, with low temperatures around 10°F, 9 to 14 mph east-southeast winds, and wind chills around -6°F. Expect cloudy weather tomorrow, with a high near 28°F, and 8 to 11 mph south wind. A very weak storm will bring mostly just clouds Monday night and Tuesday, and more active weather looks to return around the middle of the week.
Recent Avalanches
Natural wind slab and storm snow avalanches were fairly widespread across the zone during last week's stormy weather. A few likely stepped down onto buried persistent weak layers and were pretty big, like this one in Gibson Canyon, south of Mendon Peak in the Wellsville Mountain Wilderness.
A large hard slab avalanche was observed Wednesday morning in the Rodeo Grounds on the east side of Logan Peak. It may have been remote triggered from the ridge as sled tracks were also observed. The large avalanche failed on sugary faceted snow near the ground.
Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Strong south and west winds drifted tons of last week's nice powder into lee slope avalanche starting zones. Today, people are likely to trigger avalanches of wind drifted snow on many upper and mid elevation slopes. Avalanches are possible to trigger on some steep lower elevation slopes as well. Some avalanches could step down into buried persistent weak layers, involve large volumes of snow, and be quite dangerous and destructive.
- Watch for and avoid stiffer drifted snow near ridge lines and in and around terrain features like cliff bands, scoops, gully walls, and sub-ridges.
- Wind slabs are often rounded and chalky looking, and they might sound hollow, like a drum.
- Avoid ridge top cornices, which can break much further back than expected and start avalanches on slopes below.
Yesterday afternoon, west winds were still drifting lots of snow in exposed upper elevation terrain in the Wellsville Range
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Human triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer are possible on drifted upper and mid elevation slopes. The cold weather Christmas week created sugary weak surface snow in many areas, in others a layer of surface hoar feathers was buried by the New Years Storm. Slopes with previously shallow snow cover are plagued by buried weak and sugary faceted snow. The additional weight from tons of recent snow and significant drifting could be enough to activate the deeply buried persistent weak layer on some slopes.
- Some avalanches might be triggered remotely, from a distance or below.
- Smaller avalanches overrunning a slope with buried persistent weak layers could step down into old snow and initiate a much larger avalanche.
Avalanche Problem #3
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Loose wet avalanches are possible on steep sunny slopes with saturated fresh surface snow. A wet sluff overrunning a slope with a buried persistent weak layer might trigger a much larger and more dangerous avalanche.
General Announcements
New UAC Podcast - An Avalanche Forecaster, a Meteorologist, and an Economist Walk Into a Bar..... HERE
The anual CROWBAR backcountry ski race will be on Saturday, February 8. The unique and classic backcountry race will be held at the Swan Flat/Garden City Trailhead in upper Logan Canyon. There are four divisions (Junior, Recreation, Heavy Metal & Race) with different climbs, descents, and technical booters. Participants must carry avalanche rescue gear (beacon, shovel, probe) and can use alpine touring gear, telemark skis, or splitboards. Register on UltraSignup, or sign up to volunteer at this year's race!
Thanks to the generous support of our Utah ski resorts and Ski Utah, we have discount lift tickets available. All proceeds from these go towards paying for avalanche forecasting and education! Get your tickets HERE.
EMAIL ADVISORY. If you would like to get the daily advisory by email you subscribe HERE.
Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations....HERE. You can also call us at 801-524-5304, email by clicking HERE, or include #utavy in your tweet or Instagram.
This forecast is from the USDA Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
I will update this forecast before about 7:30 tomorrow morning.