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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed for
Friday, January 18, 2019
HIGH: Avoid travel in backcountry avalanche terrain today. Heavy snowfall and drifting from strong winds overloaded slopes with buried persistent weak layers and created very dangerous avalanche conditions in the backcountry. Avalanches could be triggered remotely, from a distance, or below. Stay off and out from under steep slopes and obvious or historic avalanche runout zones.
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Learn how to read the forecast here
Avalanche Warning
THE FOREST SERVICE UTAH AVALANCHE CENTER IN SALT LAKE CITY HAS ISSUED A BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WARNING.
* TIMING...THROUGH THE MLK HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
* AFFECTED AREA...THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH, TO INCLUDE THE BEAR RIVER RANGE, THE WASATCH RANGE, THE WESTERN UINTAS, AND THE MOUNTAINS OF THE MANTI-SKYLINE PLATEAU.
* AVALANCHE DANGER...THE BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE DANGER WILL REACH HIGH ON MANY ASPECTS AND ELEVATIONS WITH BOTH NATURAL AND HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES LIKELY.
* REASON/IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS. AVOID BEING ON OR BENEATH STEEP SLOPES.
BACKCOUNTRY TRAVELERS SHOULD CONSULT WWW.UTAHAVALANCHECENTER.ORG OR CALL 1-888-999-4019 FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.
THIS WARNING DOES NOT APPLY TO SKI AREAS WHERE AVALANCHE HAZARD REDUCTION MEASURES ARE PERFORMED.
Weather and Snow
A Winter Storm Warning from the National Weather Service remains in effect through this afternoon. for the Logan Zone. The avalanche danger in the backcountry is HIGH, with very dangerous conditions as we head into the MLK Weekend.
The Tony Grove Snotel at 8400' reports 15 inches of new snow with 2.1" SWE in the last 24 hours. It's a warm 22º F and there's 65" of total snow containing 95% of average SWE. I'm reading 15º F at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station, and northwest winds are currently averaging around 25 mph, with gusts of 45 mph.
The current winter storm impacting Utah will exit the state by early this afternoon. High pressure aloft will settle over the area this weekend. A new storm system will enter the Great Basin for Sunday night through Monday. This storm will bring widespread precipitation to the area to begin the week. For today, we'll see snow showers tapering off, with 3 to 5 additional inches of accumulation possible a high temperature of 38º F at 8500' and 20 to 35 mph west-northwest winds with gusts around 40 mph are expected. Tonight we'll see low temperatures around 15º F, rising into the mid twenties, and 11 to 18 mph west wind, veering from the south.
Recent Avalanches
-Natural avalanches were spotted on James Peak with breif clearing yesterday, and it was a very active day yesterday for snow safety teams across the state with numerous large avalanches reported.
A large avalanche occurred Saturday morning (1/12/19) on the east side of Logan Peak in the Fairgrounds Bowl. It was probably remote triggered by riders in the area. See report HERE
Thanks to Ryan Thompson for the photography
That brings the number of unintentionally human triggered avalanches in the Logan Zone that we know of up to 8 in 2019. (all since 1/4/19) The list of recent avalanches in the Logan Zone list is HERE
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The shallow snow near the ground in many areas is loose, sugary, and faceted. A new snow or wind slab avalanche today might step down into old snow and be large and dangerous. Avalanches on buried persistent weak layers could be remote triggered on steep slopes with shallow snow and poor snow structure, you might trigger one from a distance, or below. The buried sugary snow on many slopes will cause them to be unstable with a heavy load and a new slab from today's storm. The sugary snow will remain weak and many slopes will probably stay unstable for a while.
Here is some December snow, (now well developed facets) I found buried on the west side of Beaver Mountain. The weak sugary snow is stable on most slopes for now, but could easily become unstable again with loading from tomorrow's rather warm and moist looking storm.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Wind drifted snow is causing very dangerous avalanche conditions in exposed terrain, with triggered and nautral avalanches likely. As drifts built and continue building on slopes with buried persistent weak layers, dangerous avalanche conditions are likely to persist through the weekend and beyond.
Avalanche Problem #3
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The new snow will be most unstable during periods of very heavy snowfall. Soft slab and loose avalanches involving new snow are likely in steep terrain even where sheltered and on slopes that were tracked before the storm.
Additional Information
I will update this forecast tomorrow morning.
Now is a great time to practice companion rescue techniques with your backcountry partners. You should check out and use the new Avalanche Beacon Training Park we set up at the Franklin Basin trailhead. Special thanks to Northstars Ultimate Outdoors and USU Outdoor Program for helping us to make this possible.
General Announcements
The Beaver Mountain Backside is the backcountry, and it is avalanche terrain. If you cross the ski area boundary, you and your partners should carry and practice with avalanche rescue equipment.
Check out the improved weather links, road conditions, and weather links for each forecast region on the new UAC IOS App. Do you use the NOAA point forecast? If so, now you can bookmark your favorite weather locations in "My Weather" in the App. HERE
Are you new to the backcountry or looking to refresh your skills? The UAC has released a free 5-part avalanche skills eLearning series. HERE
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This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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